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�������պ����ѧѧ�� 2010, Vol. 36 Issue (9) :1021-1025    DOI:
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����ΰ, �� ƽ, �� ��*
1. �������պ����ѧ �Զ�����ѧ���������ѧԺ, ���� 100191;
2. �������պ����ѧ ���˼�ʻ����������о���, ���� 100191
Aircraft collision risk assessment at intersecting air routes
Meng Xiangwei, Zhang Ping, Wang Ying*
1. School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China;
2. Research Institute of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China

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Abstract�� After compared with the classical Reich modal, improvements was made on an event-based aircraft collision risk model at intercepting routes, the collision risk due to possible vertical relative movement was counted for aircraft in straight and level flight. The possible reason why the horizontal collision probability derived by the event model was excessively conservative than the Reich model was analyzed. The aircraft relative position error data were generated using Monte-Carlo simulation and fitted to several probability distributions, their effects on aircraft collision risk were compared. The result shows that it is the tail data representing the gross error that decide the aircraft collision risk and no distribution functions except generalized Pareto distribution can fit the tail data well due to less amount of gross error data.
Keywords�� risk assessment   collision avoidance   aircraft accident   air traffic control   separation   Monte-Carlo simulation   intersecting route   mid-air collision risk     
Received 2009-07-09;
About author: ����ΰ(1968-),��,����֣����,��ʿ��,mxwbuaa@163.com.
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����ΰ, ��ƽ, ����.���溽·��������ײ��������[J]  �������պ����ѧѧ��, 2010,V36(9): 1021-1025
Meng Xiangwei, Zhang Ping, Wang Ying.Aircraft collision risk assessment at intersecting air routes[J]  JOURNAL OF BEIJING UNIVERSITY OF AERONAUTICS AND A, 2010,V36(9): 1021-1025
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