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基于GM(1,1)与灰区间估计的SPE通量水平长期预测

王中宇 李强 燕虎 王倩

王中宇, 李强, 燕虎, 等 . 基于GM(1,1)与灰区间估计的SPE通量水平长期预测[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2014, 40(8): 1134-1142. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0540
引用本文: 王中宇, 李强, 燕虎, 等 . 基于GM(1,1)与灰区间估计的SPE通量水平长期预测[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2014, 40(8): 1134-1142. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0540
Wang Zhongyu, Li Qiang, Yan Hu, et al. Novel method for predicting SPE flux levels based on GM(1,1) model and grey interval predictions[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2014, 40(8): 1134-1142. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0540(in Chinese)
Citation: Wang Zhongyu, Li Qiang, Yan Hu, et al. Novel method for predicting SPE flux levels based on GM(1,1) model and grey interval predictions[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2014, 40(8): 1134-1142. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0540(in Chinese)

基于GM(1,1)与灰区间估计的SPE通量水平长期预测

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0540
基金项目: 

国防技术基础资助项目(J132012C001)

详细信息
    作者简介:

    王中宇(1963-),男,河南洛阳人,教授,mewan@buaa.edu.cn.

  • 中图分类号: V19

Novel method for predicting SPE flux levels based on GM(1,1) model and grey interval predictions

  • 摘要: 太阳质子事件(SPE,Solar Proton Events)是干扰日地空间最主要的源,大规模质子事件会影响在轨空间站实验设备的可靠性,有时甚至会威胁空间站的安全运行.提出一种基于灰色GM(1,1)和区间估计太阳质子事件预测方法;首先对1976—2010年SPE通量水平数据进行预处理,分别建立以发生时间为序列的一般SPE通量序列与极端SPE通量序列;之后将灰色GM(1,1)与区间估计相结合建立预测方法,融合反映一般SPE通量水平随周期性波动的活跃性调节系数,建立SPE通量水平长期预测模型;然后叠加不同SPE类型所得结果合成预测年份的SPE通量水平,给出未来一年或几年间SPE通量水平的变化范围;最后选取1976—2010年太阳质子事件年均值数据,分多批次预测1996—1998年和1999—2001年等SPE通量均值区间,结果表明各年实际发生SPE的通量均值均位于预测区间内,并且多年预测区间偏差最大值小于26%,实验结果还表明单次预测时长以2~3年为宜.

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2013-09-24
  • 网络出版日期:  2014-08-20

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