基于稳态和非稳态时变可用度模型的适用性

doi:10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2016.0872

北京航空航天大学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (12): 2422-2430.doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2016.0872

基于稳态和非稳态时变可用度模型的适用性

周亮¹, 李庆民², 彭英武³, 李华³

1. 海军工程大学舰船综合电力技术国防科技重点实验室, 武汉 430033;
2. 海军工程大学总师办, 武汉 43003;
3. 海军工程大学兵器工程系, 武汉 430033

收稿日期:2016-11-15 修回日期:2017-02-15 出版日期:2017-12-20 发布日期:2017-04-07
通讯作者: 李庆民 E-mail:licheng0001@hotmail.com
作者简介:周亮,男,博士,助理研究员。主要研究方向:装备综合保障、复杂系统仿真;李庆民,男,博士,教授,博士生导师。主要研究方向:装备综合保障、复杂系统仿真;彭英武,男,博士,副教授。主要研究方向:装备综合保障、复杂系统仿真;李华,男,博士,高级工程师。主要研究方向:装备综合保障、复杂系统仿真。
基金资助:
国防预研项目基金（51327020105，51304010206）

Applicability of steady-state availability model and unsteady-state time-varying availability model

ZHOU Liang¹, LI Qingmin², PENG Yingwu³, LI Hua³

1. National Key Laboratory for Vessel Integrated Power System Technology, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China;
2. Scientific Research Office, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 43003;
3. Department of Weapon Engineering, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China

Received:2016-11-15 Revised:2017-02-15 Online:2017-12-20 Published:2017-04-07
Supported by:
National Defense Pre-research Foundation (51327020105, 51304010206)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对METRIC模型中以备件期望短缺数计算的稳态可用度模型能否直接转换适用于非稳态时变可用度模型，扩展METRIC理论，分别建立了仅以备件期望短缺数计算的时变可用度模型和以备件期望短缺数及方差计算的时变可用度模型。在保障系统达到稳态（修复概率为1）和处于非稳态（修复概率小于1）情况下，分别采用2种时变可用度模型计算表决结构单元和串联结构单元的可用度，并与Monte Carlo仿真模型计算得到的结果进行对比分析。结果表明：以备件期望短缺数计算的时变可用度模型仅在串联结构单元且保障系统达到稳态时与仿真可用度值一致，适合于装备全寿命周期内备件配置优化的计算；以备件期望短缺数及方差计算的时变可用度模型无论保障系统处于稳态或非稳态，适应性均较强，适合于任务期作战单元备件配置优化计算。

关键词: METRIC, 时变可用度, 稳态, 非稳态, 期望短缺数

Abstract: Aimed at whether the steady-state availability model of METRIC model can be directly applied to the unsteady-state time-varying availability model, by extending the METRIC theory, a time-varying availability model based on the expected order of spare parts and a time-varying availability model based on the expected back order and variance of spare parts have been built. In the case that the system reaches steady state (repair probability is 1) and is in unstable state (repair probability is less than 1), two time-varying availability models are used to calculate the availability of voting structural unit and serial structural unit, and the results are compared with Monte Carlo simulation model. The results show that:when the equipment structure is a series relation and the system is stable, the time-varying availability model based on the expected number of spare parts is consistent with the simulation model, and it is suitable for the calculation of spare parts configuration optimization in the whole life cycle of the equipment; the model of time-varying availability, which is based on the expected order and variance of spare parts, is suitable for the optimization calculation of the spare parts configuration of the combat unit, regardless of the steady state and unsteady state of the support system.

Key words: METRIC, time-varying availability, steady-state, unsteady-state, expected back order

中图分类号:

E917
TJ07

周亮, 李庆民, 彭英武, 李华. 基于稳态和非稳态时变可用度模型的适用性[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2017, 43(12): 2422-2430.

ZHOU Liang, LI Qingmin, PENG Yingwu, LI Hua. Applicability of steady-state availability model and unsteady-state time-varying availability model[J]. JOURNAL OF BEIJING UNIVERSITY OF AERONAUTICS AND A, 2017, 43(12): 2422-2430.

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基于稳态和非稳态时变可用度模型的适用性

Applicability of steady-state availability model and unsteady-state time-varying availability model

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