基于改进GERT的任务过程时间特性建模分析方法

doi:10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2019.0572

北京航空航天大学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (11): 2140-2148.doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2019.0572

基于改进GERT的任务过程时间特性建模分析方法

夏宏青, 焦健, 褚嘉运, 赵廷弟

北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院, 北京 100083

收稿日期:2019-11-10 发布日期:2020-12-01
通讯作者: 焦健 E-mail:jiaojian@buaa.edu.cn
作者简介:夏宏青,女,硕士研究生。主要研究方向:可靠性/安全性建模、分析;焦健,男,博士,讲师。主要研究方向:可靠性/安全性分析、建模、仿真;褚嘉运,男,博士研究生。主要研究方向:可靠性建模和仿真、系统安全、基于模型的安全性分析、风险分析;赵廷弟,男,博士,研究员。主要研究方向:系统安全与可靠性工程、系统安全与可靠性设计分析与验证、安全预测与风险评价技术、复杂系统安全与可靠性理论等。
基金资助:
装发领域基金（61400020404）

Improved GERT based time characteristic modeling and analysis method for task process

XIA Hongqing, JIAO Jian, CHU Jiayun, ZHAO Tingdi

School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100083, China

Received:2019-11-10 Published:2020-12-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 随着系统任务需求的日渐密集，用户对系统的时间特性提出了更为严苛的要求。首先，利用图示评审技术（GERT）构建系统任务流程的随机网络模型，针对任务中由于资源共享引起的活动排队执行以及部分上下游活动之间存在重叠的情况，基于排队论并引入时间因子以修正任务中各活动的执行时间，并给出任务执行时间的求解步骤。经考虑这2种情况，最终任务平均执行时间增加了22.9%。其次，通过不确定性分析，找出了任务中的关键活动，为进一步任务优化提供方向和思路。最后，以舰载机着舰任务为例进行案例应用分析，验证所提建模分析方法的有效性和适用性。

关键词: 任务流程, 图示评审技术(GERT), 排队论, 时间因子, 不确定性分析

Abstract: The characteristic of time is an important requirement for system tasks, especially in complex industrial systems. This paper adopts Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT) to build the stochastic network model of task flow. Considering the queued execution of activities caused by resource sharing and the overlapping of some upstream and downstream activities in tasks, the queuing theory and time factor are introduced to modify the execution time of each activity in the task, and the solution steps are given. The average execution time of the task increases by 22.9%; through uncertainty analysis, moreover, the key activities in the task are found out, which can provide direction and ideas for further task optimization. The landing task of carrier-based aircraft is taken as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method.

Key words: task flow, Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT), queuing theory, time factor, uncertainty analysis

中图分类号:

夏宏青, 焦健, 褚嘉运, 赵廷弟. 基于改进GERT的任务过程时间特性建模分析方法[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2020, 46(11): 2140-2148.

XIA Hongqing, JIAO Jian, CHU Jiayun, ZHAO Tingdi. Improved GERT based time characteristic modeling and analysis method for task process[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2020, 46(11): 2140-2148.

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基于改进GERT的任务过程时间特性建模分析方法

Improved GERT based time characteristic modeling and analysis method for task process

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