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面向装备RUL预测的平行仿真技术

葛承垄 朱元昌 邸彦强

葛承垄, 朱元昌, 邸彦强等 . 面向装备RUL预测的平行仿真技术[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2018, 44(4): 725-736. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0262
引用本文: 葛承垄, 朱元昌, 邸彦强等 . 面向装备RUL预测的平行仿真技术[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2018, 44(4): 725-736. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0262
GE Chenglong, ZHU Yuanchang, DI Yanqianget al. Equipment RUL prediction oriented parallel simulation technology[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2018, 44(4): 725-736. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0262(in Chinese)
Citation: GE Chenglong, ZHU Yuanchang, DI Yanqianget al. Equipment RUL prediction oriented parallel simulation technology[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2018, 44(4): 725-736. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0262(in Chinese)

面向装备RUL预测的平行仿真技术

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0262
基金项目: 

装备预研基金重点项目 9140A04020115JB34011

详细信息
    作者简介:

    葛承垄  男, 博士研究生。主要研究方向:装备平行仿真及其应用

    朱元昌  男, 博士, 教授。主要研究方向:系统仿真

    邸彦强  男, 博士, 副教授。主要研究方向:系统仿真

    通讯作者:

    邸彦强, E-mail: 1049084176@qq.com

  • 中图分类号: TP391.9

Equipment RUL prediction oriented parallel simulation technology

Funds: 

Key Project of Equipment Pre-Research Foundation of China 9140A04020115JB34011

More Information
  • 摘要:

    装备平行仿真是系统建模与仿真领域的新兴仿真技术,已经成为研究热点。在装备维修保障领域中,分析了装备剩余寿命(RUL)预测存在的突出问题,即模型参数固定、不具备自适应演化能力,成为阻碍实现装备剩余寿命自适应预测的首要因素。结合装备平行仿真理论,在建模分析的基础上提出了面向装备剩余寿命预测的平行仿真框架,该框架以Wiener状态空间模型为基础仿真模型,在动态注入的装备退化观测数据驱动下,利用期望最大化(EM)算法在线更新模型参数,并利用卡尔曼滤波(KF)算法实现仿真输出数据与观测数据的同化(DA),从而实现仿真模型动态演化,使得仿真输出不断逼近装备真实退化状态,为准确预测剩余寿命提供高逼真度仿真模型和数据输出。以某轴承性能退化数据为数据驱动源,对该框架进行了验证,仿真结果表明平行仿真方法能准确仿真装备性能退化过程,在提高预测精度的基础上实现了装备剩余寿命的自适应预测,有力证明了平行仿真方法的可行性和有效性。

     

  • 图 1  装备平行仿真示意图

    Figure 1.  Schematic of equipment parallel simulation

    图 2  面向装备RUL预测的平行仿真示意图

    Figure 2.  Schematic of equipment RUL prediction oriented parallel simulation

    图 3  全寿命试验中轴承1的均方根值

    Figure 3.  RMS of the 1st bearing in life test

    图 4  退化状态对比

    Figure 4.  Comparison of degradation state

    图 5  WSSM未知参数在线演化

    Figure 5.  Online evolution of unknown parameters for WSSM

    图 6  不同监测时刻上预测的RUL的PDF

    Figure 6.  PDF of RUL predicted at different monitoring time points

    图 7  MLE-IG法与本文方法的对比

    Figure 7.  Comparison between MLE-IG method and proposed method

    图 8  预测的剩余寿命期望值与实际剩余寿命对比

    Figure 8.  Comparison between expectation of predictive RUL and bearing actual RUL

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2017-04-26
  • 录用日期:  2017-07-07
  • 网络出版日期:  2018-04-20

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