Exo-atmospheric interceptor modeling and penetration and defense effectiveness analysis
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摘要:
基于跨大气层反导拦截的各阶段流程，首先完成了某型拦截弹的动力学建模，然后利用预测拦截点（PIP）导引以及射表插值的思想，设计了针对大气层外中远程弹道类目标的中段拦截制导方法。在此基础上，研究了不同情形下拦截弹针对弹道导弹的部署区域，发射区段与拦截区段，以及固定拦截阵地的保护范围，验证了大气层外拦截导引方法的有效性。考虑到弹道导弹可能采取的突防措施，包括机动变轨、电子干扰以及红外诱饵掩护等手段，通过设计大样本仿真试验，分析进攻弹所采取的不同措施带来的突防效能。对于能够拦截常规弹道的拦截弹部署点，进攻弹可以通过机动变轨和释放诱饵等策略分阶段起到干扰作用，将突防概率提高到70%以上。
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关键词:
- 大气层外 /
- 动能拦截 /
- 预测拦截点(PIP) /
- 数值射表 /
- 攻防效能
Abstract:Based on the procedure of trans-atmospheric missile defense interception in each phase, this paper has firstly established a dynamic model for exo-atmospheric interceptor. Then according to the theory of predicted intercepting point (PIP) guidance and firing table interpolation, a method of exo-atmospheric midcourse guidance has been presented to intercept intermediate-range and long-range ballistic target. On this basis, this paper has studied the interceptor deployment zones and the firing/intercept sections according to multiple target trajectories, and the protective zone of one fixed interceptor launch position. With this approach, the effectiveness of the exo-atmospheric interception guidance method has been tested. Finally, considering the penetration measures that ballistic missile may have taken, including maneuver orbital transfer, electronic jamming, infrared bait, etc., the penetration effectiveness that achieved from different measures employed by offensive missile has been analyzed through large sample simulations. For those interceptor deployment positions where the general ballistic target can be hit, the penetration probability of the warhead can be raised up to over 70% with the interference strategies such as maneuver orbital transfer and bait release applied in different phases.
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图 10 射表中tOPT分布的示意图
Figure 10. Schematic diagram of distribution of tOPT in firing table
图 14 理论计算与仿真得到的布防区对比
Figure 14. Comparison of defense deployment zone between theoretical calculation and simulation
图 15 各飞行时间下弹道对应的布防区
Figure 15. Defense deployment zones for different trajectories corresponding to each flight time
图 16 针对5 000 km弹道组的发射区段与拦截区段
Figure 16. Firing/intercept sections on a series of trajectories with range of 5 000 km
图 19 弹头变轨致使修正预测拦截点
Figure 19. Revision of predicted intercept point due towarhead orbital transfer
图 21 包含诱饵的拦截仿真示意图
Figure 21. Schematic diagram of intercept simulation including baits
图 22 各火力单元拦截弹的末制导指令
Figure 22. Terminal guidance commands of interceptor of each firing unit
图 23 机动变轨目标及常规目标的可拦截发射点对比
Figure 23. Comparison of launch points for intercepting maneuver orbital transfer target and general target
图 24 部署区域内拦截成功率的分布
Figure 24. Successful intercept probability distribution in deployment zone
表 1 火箭助推器的基本参数
Table 1. Basic parameters of rocket booster
级数 总质量/kg 燃料质量/kg 推力/kN 工作时间/s 1 725.7 577.8 62.55×4 6 2 1 134.0 398.6
508.6139.246
40.6118
353 453.5 150.0
150.042.0
42.010
10
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表 2 EKV的基本参数
Table 2. Basic parameters of EKV
参数 数值 红外导引头视距/km 700 长度/m 0.68 直径/m 0.19 总质量/kg 60.0 燃料质量/kg 20.0 秒流量/(kg·s-1) 1.0 推力/kN 2.6
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表 3 进攻弹的仿真想定
Table 3. Scenario of ballistic missile
关机点 目标Ⅰ 目标Ⅱ 飞行时间/s 诱饵数 (0°, 0°) (E45°, 0°) (E42°, N2°) 685.46 8
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表 4 拦截仿真结果
Table 4. Intercept simulation results
发射阵地 飞行时间/s 燃料消耗/% 脱靶量/m (E30°, 0°) 313.22 72.41 3326.2 (E40°, 0°) 408.87 62.62 0.0393
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表 5 诱饵数与EKV锁定弹头的概率
Table 5. Bait number and probability of EKV locking on warhead
n 3 4 5 6 7 8 Pd(n) 0.3620 0.2565 0.2141 0.1836 0.1607 0.1429
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