Risk assessment of lateral collision between military UAV and civil aviation flight
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摘要:
近年来无人机(UAV)已经成为新型作战力量。为解决军航UAV与民航航班之间的飞行冲突，确保飞行安全，对经典EVENT模型进行改进，提出适用于UAV的碰撞风险模型。着重研究了导航方式、人为因素、高空风对于UAV飞行的影响，并构建了相应的位置偏差模型。首先，利用蒙特卡罗法求解军航UAV与民航航班之间侧向间隔丢失的频率；其次，利用MATLAB进行算例仿真，验证模型的有效性，并得出了侧向碰撞概率随参数变化的关系；最后，通过计算不同安全间隔下的碰撞风险，对空域使用提出建议。
Abstract:In recent years, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) has become a new combat force. In order to solve the flight conflict between military UAV and civil aviation and ensure flight safety, this paper improves the classic EVENT model and proposes a collision risk model suitable for UAV. The influence of navigation mode, human factors and high-altitude wind on UAV flight is emphatically studied, and the corresponding position deviation model is constructed. Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the loss frequency of lateral interval between military UAV and civil aviation flight. MATLAB is used for example simulation to verify the effectiveness of the model, and the relationship between the lateral collision probability and the parameters is obtained. By calculating the collision risk at different safety intervals, some suggestions on the use of airspace are put forward.
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Key words:
- Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) /
- risk of collision /
- EVENT model /
- Monte Carlo method /
- risk assessment
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图 4 军航无人机位置偏差示意图
Figure 4. Schematic diagram of military aviation UAV position deviation
图 5 民航航班位置偏差示意图
Figure 5. Schematic diagram of civil aviation flight position deviation
图 6 军民航位置偏差示意图
Figure 6. Schematic diagram of military and civil aviation position deviation
表 1 用户等效距离误差
Table 1. User equivalent distance error
所属单元 误差源 导航系统误差/m 空间部分 卫星时钟稳定性 3.0 卫星扰动可确定性 1.0 选择可用性(SA) 32.3 其他 0.5 控制部分 星历预计误差 4.2 其他(推力性能等) 0.9 用户部分 电离层延迟 5.0 对流层延迟 1.5 接收机噪声 1.5 多路径误差 2.5 其他 0.5 系统UERE 总的误差(均方根) 33.3 
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表 2 侧向碰撞风险模型所需参数值
Table 2. Required parameter values of lateral collision risk model
参数 数值 参数 数值 λjx/m 22.7 E(S) 0.61 λjy/m 14.2 v/(m·s-1) 240 λjz/m 4.1 σv 15 λhx/m 72.8 σγ 2 λhy/m 79.8 σx 66.6 λhz/m 24.1 Pz(0) 0.5 β 0.034 L/km 10 Ux/(m·s-1) 129 Uy/(m·s-1) 262 Uz/(m·s-1) 5 w/(m·s－1) 0.58
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表 3 不同起点碰撞风险表
Table 3. Collision risk with different starting points
起点 碰撞风险/(次·飞行小时-1) S1 7.36×10-11 S2 6.84×10-11 S3 5.37×10-11 S4 3.21×10-11 S5 4.43×10-10 S6 3.16×10-10 S7 2.86×10-10 S8 9.46×10-11
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表 4 不同间隔下碰撞风险表
Table 4. Collision risk at different intervals
安全间隔/km 碰撞风险/(次·飞行小时-1) 10 7.36×10-11 9 3.42×10-11 8 4.32×10-10 7 3.47×10-9 6 6.43×10-9
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