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Formation mechanism analysis of aviation calamity based on Bayesian network
Luo Fan1, Chen Xiaojia2, Gu Bichong3*
Management School, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China

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Abstract�� In order to prevent the emergence of accident-inducing elements and control the further development of them, to improve aviation security management to be scientific and reliable, and decrease the accident rate and aviation calamity loss. It is a key of formation mechanism analysis to probe into interaction of the factors to cause an aviation calamity in accordance with the characteristics. Causality of the factors was analyzed and the interaction law of human, aircraft, environment and management factors is revealed by means of the application of both diagnosis and support inference form based on Bayesian network model. The effects coming from the connotative internal factors of the system were investigated, and the evolution process of the connotative factors from the uncertain state to the certain state and relationships between the external factors and the internal factors were found with formation mechanism analyses of a typical aviation calamity case according to Gauss Bayesian network.
Keywords�� aviation calamity   formation   mechanism   Bayesian network     
Received 2004-12-02;


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�޷�, ��С��, �˱س�.���ڱ�Ҷ˹����ĺ����ֺ��������̽��[J]  �������պ����ѧѧ��, 2005,V31(08): 934-938
Luo Fan, Chen Xiaojia, Gu Bichong.Formation mechanism analysis of aviation calamity based on Bayesian network[J]  JOURNAL OF BEIJING UNIVERSITY OF AERONAUTICS AND A, 2005,V31(08): 934-938
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