北京航空航天大学学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 492-498.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于退化量分布时序分析的产品寿命预测

王立, 李晓阳, 姜同敏   

  1. 北京航空航天大学 可靠性与系统工程学院, 北京 100191
  • 收稿日期:2010-08-10 出版日期:2011-04-29 发布日期:2011-04-29
  • 作者简介:王立(1983-),女,北京人,博士生,xiaolizi1983@hotmail.com.
  • 基金资助:

    国家安全重大基础研究项目(61312803)

Life prediction of product based on degradation amount distribution time series analysis

Wang Li, Li Xiaoyang, Jiang Tongmin   

  1. School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China
  • Received:2010-08-10 Online:2011-04-29 Published:2011-04-29

摘要: 针对现有性能退化预测方法采用单调回归函数对产品退化随机过程描述不够合理的问题,从产品在各时刻退化量分布角度出发,分析退化量分布参数估计的非平稳时序类型,并对各参数估计分别采用相应类型的非平稳时序分析方法建模,进而给出一种与实际退化随机过程更为相符的基于退化量分布的产品寿命及可靠度预测方法.通过对某电子产品的退化试验,采用所提出的寿命预测方法进行了该电子产品寿命及可靠度预测.结果表明该方法相比传统方法更符合实际.

Abstract: For the problem that traditional life prediction methods described product degradation stochastic process inadequately using monotonous regression function,the non-stationary time series types of different degradation amount distribution parameters estimation was analyzed based on product degradation amount distribution at each time.Different parameters estimation was modeled respectively using non-stationary time series analysis method.Hence,a realistic product life and reliability prediction method based on degradation amount distribution time series analysis was proposed. A degradation test of a certain electronic product was conducted,and product life and reliability were obtained by the suggested method. The results show that the suggested life prediction method is more reasonable than traditional life prediction method.

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