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�������պ����ѧѧ�� 2011, Vol. 37 Issue (10) :1223-1227    DOI: CNKI:11-2625/V.20111013.1727.015
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������, ���廪*
�������պ����ѧ ���տ�ѧ�빤��ѧԺ, ���� 100191
Results analysis and prediction on civil aviation safety indices
Wang Yanyang, Cao Yihua*
School of Aeronautic Science and Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China

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Abstract�� In order to predict civil aviation safety, the range prediction model was developed by using grey range prediction method, which suited for the character of less and uncertain of the safety assessment result data. The results of civil aviation safety indices were shown. According to these results, the civil aviation safety level was analyzed, which showed the function and usage of this safety assessment indices system. To demonstrate the validity of grey range prediction method, the grey prediction range model of civil aviation safety assessment was tested by actual data of China civil aviation composite safety index. By using this model, the prediction range of China civil aviation composite safety index for next year was given.
Keywords�� aviation accidents   civil aviation   prediction theory     
Received 2010-05-17;
About author: ������(1971-),��,����Ӫ����,��ʦ,yanyang_wang@sina.com.
������, ���廪.�񺽰�ȫָ�����������Ԥ��[J]  �������պ����ѧѧ��, 2011,V37(10): 1223-1227
Wang Yanyang, Cao Yihua.Results analysis and prediction on civil aviation safety indices[J]  JOURNAL OF BEIJING UNIVERSITY OF AERONAUTICS AND A, 2011,V37(10): 1223-1227
http://bhxb.buaa.edu.cn//CN/CNKI:11-2625/V.20111013.1727.015     ��     http://bhxb.buaa.edu.cn//CN/Y2011/V37/I10/1223
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