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利用WW3模式实现中国海击水概率数值预报

郑崇伟 潘静 黄刚

郑崇伟, 潘静, 黄刚等 . 利用WW3模式实现中国海击水概率数值预报[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2014, 40(3): 314-320. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0247
引用本文: 郑崇伟, 潘静, 黄刚等 . 利用WW3模式实现中国海击水概率数值预报[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2014, 40(3): 314-320. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0247
Zheng Chongwei, Pan Jing, Huang Ganget al. Forecasting of the China Sea ditching probability using WW3 wave model[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2014, 40(3): 314-320. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0247(in Chinese)
Citation: Zheng Chongwei, Pan Jing, Huang Ganget al. Forecasting of the China Sea ditching probability using WW3 wave model[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2014, 40(3): 314-320. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0247(in Chinese)

利用WW3模式实现中国海击水概率数值预报

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0247
基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展规划资助项目(2012CB957803);公益行业(气象)科研专项资助项目(GYHY201306026)
详细信息
  • 中图分类号: P79;P731

Forecasting of the China Sea ditching probability using WW3 wave model

  • 摘要: 海浪对掠海飞行有着重要影响,以T639预报风场驱动WW3(WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ)海浪模式,对2013年3月发生在中国海的一次冷空气海浪场进行数值模拟.结合飞行高度探测的标准差、海浪浪高的标准差,进一步实现了击水概率的数值预报,为低空飞行器的航迹规划提供科学依据.主要计算了5 m高度、10 m高度、15 m高度的击水概率,并对比不同飞行高度击水概率的差异.结果表明,以T639预报风场驱动WW3海浪模式,可以较好地预报中国海海浪场、击水概率场.在冷空气影响下,中国海的击水概率出现明显增幅.飞行高度低于10 m时,海浪会对掠海飞行器的安全造成很大威胁.

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2013-05-08
  • 网络出版日期:  2014-03-20

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