北京航空航天大学学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (11): 1518-1525.doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2014.0340

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

小样本理论在航空发动机研制费估算中的应用

刘芳, 张海涛   

  1. 中国航空工业发展研究中心 财经研究部, 北京 100029
  • 收稿日期:2014-06-11 出版日期:2014-11-20 发布日期:2014-12-02
  • 作者简介:刘芳(1977-),女,湖南岳阳人,高级工程师,lfyy_2004@126.com.

Application of small sample theory in aero engine development costs estimation

Liu Fang, Zhang Haitao   

  1. The Ministry of Finance and Economics Research, AVIC Development Research Center, Beijing 100029, China
  • Received:2014-06-11 Online:2014-11-20 Published:2014-12-02

摘要:

研究了小样本理论中的偏最小二乘法在航空发动机研制费估算中的适用性,系统收集了国内10余种军用涡喷/涡扇发动机的技术性能和研制费数据,选取涡轮进口温度、军用耗油率、发动机军用推力、发动机加力推力、发动机推重比、发动机净重、总增压比、空气流量、翻修寿命、原型机数量、完成时间等技术参数,将小样本理论中的偏最小二乘法应用于军用航空发动机研制费估算模型的研究,形成了基于主要性能指标的军用航空发动机研制费参数估算模型,并建立了军用航空发动机研制继承系数的概念.计算结果表明,该模型较国内其他已有模型的精度有所提高,达到了10%,可以应用于我国航空发动机研制费的快速估算.

关键词: 航空发动机, 研制费, 估算, 模型, 小样本理论, 偏最小二乘法

Abstract:

The usability of the partial least squares method of small sample theory in military aero engine development costs estimating was discussed. The technical and development expense data of more than ten kinds of military turbojet and turbofan engine were collected. The technical parameters such as turbine inlet temperature, military fuel consumption rate, military thrust, afterburner thrust, thrust weight ratio, engine weight, total pressure ratio, air flow, overhaul life, number of prototypes and completion time were selected. The partial least squares method in military aero engine development costs estimating was used. The military aero engine development cost estimation model based on the major technical parameters was formed, and the development concept inheritance coefficient of military aero engine was established. The results show that the model's accuracy is improved compared with the other existing models, reaching 10%, and can be used to support for aero engine development cost estimation quickly.

Key words: aero engine, development cost, estimation, model, small sample theory, partial least squares method

中图分类号: 


版权所有 © 《北京航空航天大学学报》编辑部
通讯地址:北京市海淀区学院路37号 北京航空航天大学学报编辑部 邮编:100191 E-mail:jbuaa@buaa.edu.cn
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发