留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

知识与数据融合的可靠性定量模型建模方法

郝志鹏 曾声奎 郭健彬 马纪明 李齐林

郝志鹏, 曾声奎, 郭健彬, 等 . 知识与数据融合的可靠性定量模型建模方法[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2016, 42(1): 101-111. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0029
引用本文: 郝志鹏, 曾声奎, 郭健彬, 等 . 知识与数据融合的可靠性定量模型建模方法[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2016, 42(1): 101-111. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0029
HAO Zhipeng, ZENG Shengkui, GUO Jianbin, et al. Integrated method of knowledge and data for quantitative reliability modeling[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2016, 42(1): 101-111. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0029(in Chinese)
Citation: HAO Zhipeng, ZENG Shengkui, GUO Jianbin, et al. Integrated method of knowledge and data for quantitative reliability modeling[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2016, 42(1): 101-111. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0029(in Chinese)

知识与数据融合的可靠性定量模型建模方法

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0029
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(61304218)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    郝志鹏男,博士研究生。主要研究方向:可靠性与性能一体化设计、可靠性评估等。Tel.:010-82338403E-mail:haozhipeng@buaa.edu.cn;曾声奎男,博士,教授。主要研究方向:可靠性综合设计与仿真、可靠性与性能一体化设计、人机系统可靠性分析、计算机辅助可靠性工程等。Tel.:010-82314731E-mail:zengshengkui@buaa.edu.cn;郭健彬男,博士,讲师。主要研究方向:系统可靠性设计分析、机电产品可靠性仿真、RMS综合集成平台、多学科设计优化。Tel.:010-82333839E-mail:guojianbin@buaa.edu.cn;马纪明男,博士,讲师。主要研究方向:机电系统性能与可靠性一体化设计方法、机电系统多学科设计优化方法、控制系统可靠性分析方法、随机作用下的系统响应特性分析。Tel.:010-82339761E-mail:jiming.ma@buaa.edu.cn;李齐林男,硕士,工程师。主要研究方向:机电系统性能与可靠性一体化设计方法、机电系统多学科设计优化方法。

    通讯作者:

    曾声奎,Tel.:010-82314731E-mail:zengshengkui@buaa.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: V24;TB114.3

Integrated method of knowledge and data for quantitative reliability modeling

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China(61304218)
  • 摘要: 可靠性定量设计的关键是建立可靠性定量模型。现有的可靠性定量模型建模方法主要基于设计人员对产品对象故障规律的知识,包括故障模式、环境扰动、故障机理等。但知识固有的有限性和不完整性必然会给可靠性定量模型带来模型误差和输入参数的不确定性。针对这个问题,提出了基于贝叶斯理论融合知识和数据的可靠性定量模型建模方法,量化并更新模型误差和输入参数的不确定性。为此,首先说明了知识与数据融合的可靠性定量模型建模工作,建立了知识与数据融合的可靠性定量模型建模框架;接着阐述了基于贝叶斯理论的知识与数据融合原理;然后介绍了基于贝叶斯理论融合知识与数据的通用方法,并分别针对性能波动数据和性能退化数据2种常见数据类型进一步详细讨论了各自适用的贝叶斯融合方法;最后通过机载轴向柱塞泵的案例验证了前述方法的可行性和有效性。

     

  • [1] SILVERMAN M,KLEYNER A.What is design for reliability and what is not[C]//Proceedings of Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium.Piscataway,NJ:IEEE Press,2012:1-5.
    [2] SANCHEZ L M,PAN R.An enhanced parenting process:Predicting reliability in product's design phase[J].Quality Engineering,2011,23(4):378-387.
    [3] 曾声奎.系统可靠性与性能一体化设计方法研究[D].北京:北京航空航天大学,2009:1-3. ZENG S K.Integrated design method of system reliability and performance[D].Beijing:Beihang University,2009:1-3 (in Chinese).
    [4] 夏青,钱山,张士峰,等.飞行器可靠性与性能一体化设计初步研究[J].弹箭与制导学报,2009,29(1):257-259. XIA Q,QIAN S,ZHANG S F,et al.Primary study of reliability and performance incorporate design of aerocraft[J].Journal of Projectiles,Rockets,Missiles and Guidance,2009,29(1):257-259(in Chinese).
    [5] DU X P,CHEN W.Collaborative reliability analysis under the framework of multidisciplinary systems design[J].Optimization and Engineering,2005,6(1):63-84.
    [6] XIA Q,LI M,CAO Z J,et al.The study of reliability in MDO of aircraft[J].Applied Mechanics & Materials,2012,226-228:598-601.
    [7] 郭健彬.考虑可靠性的无人机总体设计方法及平台[D].北京:北京航空航天大学,2008:1-3. GUO J B.Study on method and platform for reliability considered UAV concept design[D].Beijing:Beihang University,2008:1-3(in Chinese).
    [8] VALDEBENITO M A,SCHUËLLER G I.A survey on approaches for reliability-based optimization[J].Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization,2010,42(5):645-663.
    [9] QIU Z P,HUANG R,WANG X J,et al.Structural reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization:Recent advances[J].Science China Physics,Mechanics and Astronomy,2013,56(9):1611-1618.
    [10] HU Z,DU X P.Lifetime cost optimization with time-dependent reliability[J].Engineering Optimization,2014,46(10):1389-1410.
    [11] WANG Y,ZENG S K,GUO J B.Time-dependent reliability-based design optimization utilizing nonintrusive polynomial chaos[J].Journal of Applied Mathematics,2013(4):1-16.
    [12] 张义民.机械动态与渐变可靠性理论与技术评述[J].机械工程学报,2013,49(23):101-114. ZHANG Y M.Review of theory and technology of mechanical reliability for dynamic and gradual systems[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2013,49(23):101-114(in Chinese).
    [13] 曾声奎,李霏霞,马纪明.基于响应面的系统性能可靠性优化设计方法[J].航空学报,2009,30(9):1655-1606. ZENG S K,LI F X,MA J M.Response surface-based performance reliability optimization design method[J].Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2009,30(9):1655-1606(in Chinese).
    [14] 陈云霞.性能与可靠性一体化建模[D].北京:北京航空航天大学,2004:1-2. CHEN Y X.Study on method of model and analysis for integrating performance and reliability[D].Beijing:Beihang University,2004:1-2(in Chinese).
    [15] 陈云霞,曾声奎,晋严尊.飞控系统性能与可靠性一体化设计技术[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2008,34(2):210-214. CHEN Y X,ZENG S K,JIN Y Z.Integrating design of performance and reliability for flight control systems[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2008,34(2):210-214(in Chinese).
    [16] KENNEDY M C,O'HAGAN A.Bayesian calibration of computer models[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series B (Statistical Methodology),2001,63(3):425-464.
    [17] 杨华勇,张斌,徐兵.轴向柱塞泵/马达技术的发展演变[J].机械工程学报,2008,44(10):1-8. YANG H Y,ZHANG B,XU B.Development of axial piston pump/motor technology[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2008,44(10):1-8(in Chinese).
    [18] BERGADA J M,KUMAR S,DAVIES D L,et al.A complete analysis of axial piston pump leakage and output flow ripples[J].Applied Mathematical Modelling,2012,36(4):1731-1751.
    [19] 黄平,温诗铸.粘弹性流体动力润滑与润滑磨损[J].机械工程学报,1996,32(3):35-41. HUANG P,WEN S Z.Visco-elastohydrodynamic lubrication and lubricated wear[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,1996,32(3):35-41(in Chinese).
    [20] KATO K.Abrasive wear of metals[J].Tribology International,1997,30(5):333-338.
    [21] KUMAR S.CFD analysis of an axial piston pump[D].Barcelona:Universidad Politecnica de Catalunya,2010:142-156.
    [22] 中国航空工业总公司.一般公差:HB 5800[S].北京:中国航空工业总公司,1999:2-5. Aviation Industry Corporation of China.General tolerances:HB 5800[S].Beijing:Aviation Industry Corporation of China,1999:2-5(in Chinese).
    [23] GERRITSMA M I,STEEN J B V D,VOS P,et al.Time-dependent generalized polynomial chaos[J].Journal of Computational Physics,2010,229(22):8333-8363.
    [24] ELDRED M,BURKARDT J.Comparison of non-intrusive polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation methods for uncertainty quantification[J].AIAA Paper,2009,976:1-20.
    [25] KELLY D,SMITH C.Bayesian inference for probabilistic risk assessment[M].London:Springer,2011:18.
  • 加载中
计量
  • 文章访问数:  944
  • HTML全文浏览量:  81
  • PDF下载量:  606
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2015-01-15
  • 网络出版日期:  2016-01-20

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回
    常见问答