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摘要:
针对复杂装备风险传导关系描述不清晰的问题，构建了风险传导不确定随机多传递参量图形评审技术（UR-MTPGERT）网络模型。首先，基于机会理论，定义了不确定随机变量的矩母函数，并在此基础上构建了UR-MTPGERT网络模型。其次，为刻画复杂装备的微观风险信息，在模型中引入系统风险度、风险元重要度、风险路径关联度等解析参数。然后，求解矩母函数时，采用德尔菲法处理专家经验数据，得到经验不确定分布，并利用极大熵模型处理随机数据，得到概率密度函数；引入矩阵分析技术，解决了网络拓扑分析困难的问题，在此基础上计算网络参数。最后，对某型飞机进行安全性分析，结果表明，该模型能清晰反映风险元间的关系，可以为复杂装备的风险分析、预判和安全控制提供借鉴。
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关键词:
- 复杂装备风险 /
- 风险传导 /
- 不确定随机多传递参量图形评审技术(UR-MTPGERT) /
- 机会理论 /
- 矩阵分析
Abstract:Aimed at the problem of unclear description of the conduction relationship of complex equipment risks, a risk conduction uncertain random multi-transfer parameter graph evaluation and review technique (UR-MTPGERT) model is constructed. First, based on the opportunity theory, the moment function of uncertain random variables is defined, and then a multi-transter parameter UR-MTPGERT network is constructed. Second, to describe the micro-risk information of complex equipment systems, analytic parameters are introduced in the model including the degree of risk, the importance of risk primitives and the degree of relevance of risk paths. Then, when solving the moment function, the Delphi method is used to process the expert empirical data to obtain the empirical uncertainty distribution, and the maximum entropy model is used to process the random data. The probability density function is obtained. The matrix analysis technique is introduced to solve the problem of difficult network topology analysis. On this basis, the network parameters are calculated. Finally, the safety analysis of a certain type of aircraft is carried out. The results show that the model can clearly reflect the relationship between risk elements and provide reference for the risk analysis, prediction and safety control of complex equipment.
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图 2 风险传导UR-MTPGERT基本单元构成示意图
Figure 2. Schematic of basic unit structure of risk conduction UR-MTPGERT
图 4 某型飞机风险传导UR-MTPGERT网络示意图
Figure 4. Schematic of risk conduction UR-MTPGERT network of a certain type of aircraft
表 1 操纵子系统的物理部件风险度样本
Table 1. Risk degree samples of physical components of operating subsystem
时段 风险度h1/10-6 1 0.42 2 0.58 3 0.57 4 0.22 5 0.80 6 0.35 7 0.87 8 0.64 9 0.56 10 0.59 11 0.38 12 0.55 13 0.63 14 0.65 15 0.69 16 0.80 17 0.57 18 0.39 19 0.89 20 0.61 21 0.49 22 0.61 23 0.31 24 0.58 
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表 2 子系统与模型代号对应关系
Table 2. Correspondence of subsystem and model code
代号 子系统 1 环控子系统 2 操纵子系统 3 结构子系统 4 液压子系统 5 供电子系统 6 导航子系统 7 推进子系统
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