基于不确定性的航空装备体系保障性评估

崔利杰; 丛继平; 丁刚; 任博; 王毅; 黎纪宏

doi:10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2020.0490

基于不确定性的航空装备体系保障性评估

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2020.0490

崔利杰^1, ,,
丛继平²,
丁刚¹,
任博^{1, 3},
王毅¹,
黎纪宏⁴

1.
空军工程大学装备管理与无人机工程学院, 西安 710051
2.
空军工程大学研究生院, 西安 710051
3.
光电控制技术重点实验室, 洛阳 471000
4.
中国人民解放军95825部队, 孝感 432100

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 72001213

“十三五”装备预研共同技术课题 41402030401

详细信息

通讯作者:
崔利杰. E-mail: lijie_cui@163.com

中图分类号: V37
计量
- 文章访问数: 237
- HTML全文浏览量: 38
- PDF下载量: 22
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-09-01
- 录用日期: 2021-01-17
- 网络出版日期: 2021-12-20

Supportability evaluation of aviation equipment system based on uncertainty

CUI Lijie^{1
, ,},
CONG Jiping²,
DING Gang¹,
REN Bo^{1, 3},
WANG Yi¹,
LI Jihong⁴

1.
Equipment Management and UAV Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an 710051, China
2.
Graduate college, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an 710051, China
3.
Science and Technology on Electro-optic Control Laboratory, Luoyang 471000, China
4.
Chinese People's Liberation Army 95825 Unit, Xiaogan 432100, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 72001213

The 13th Five Year Plan Equipment Pre-research Common Technical Topic 41402030401

More Information

Corresponding author: CUI Lijie. E-mail: lijie_cui@163.com

摘要

摘要:
针对航空装备体系结构复杂、要素繁多、耦合性强的特点，对其保障流程进行了研究。采用多Agent建模技术开展航空装备体系保障性仿真建模，并进行分析评估；考虑到保障过程中大量存在的主客观不确定性因素，分别采用模糊变量和随机分布2种变量形式予以描述；为符合客观变量动态时变的特点，将基于交叉熵的最大似然估计和哈密顿蒙特卡罗方法相结合，实现基于信息更新的仿真参数描述，优化航空装备体系保障仿真模型。以一个典型战训任务为例，验证了所提方法的可行性和准确性。
- 航空装备体系 /
- 保障 /
- 多Agent模型 /
- 不确定性 /
- 信息更新 /
- 仿真评估
Abstract:
Aimed at the characteristics of complex structure, various elements, and strong coupling of aviation equipment system, based on the analysis of its support process, the multi-Agent modeling technology is used to carry out the supportability modeling of the aviation equipment system, and analysis and evaluation are performed. Taking into account the large amount of subjective and objective uncertainty factors in the support process, the uncertainty factors are described in the forms of random distribution and fuzzy variables. In order to conform to the characteristics of dynamic time-varying objective variables, the maximum likelihood estimation based on cross-entropy and the Hamilton Monte Carlo method are combined to realize simulation parameter description based on information update and optimize aviation equipment system support simulation model. Finally, a typical combat training task is taken as an example to verify the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed method.
- aviation equipment system /
- support /
- multi-Agent model /
- uncertainty /
- information update /
- simulation evaluation

HTML全文

图 1 航空装备体系保障流程

Figure 1. Aviation equipment system support process

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图 2 航空装备体系保障仿真系统

Figure 2. Aviation equipment system support simulation system

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图 3 模糊变量λ水平截集描述

Figure 3. Horizontal cut set description of fuzzy variable λ

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图 4 参数优化流程

Figure 4. Parameter optimization flowchart

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图 5 累计的飞机完好率

Figure 5. Cumulative aircraft readiness rate

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图 6 每天的飞机完好率

Figure 6. Daily aircraft readiness rate

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图 7 不同参数放大系数下飞机完好率指标变化

Figure 7. Changes of aircraft readiness rate index under different parameter magnification factors

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图 8 飞机完好率结果分布

Figure 8. Results distribution of aircraft readiness rate

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图 9 飞机完好率变化

Figure 9. Changes of aircraft readiness rate

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图 10 实际完好率与拟合结果对比

Figure 10. Comparison of actual readiness rate and fitting result

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表 1 航空装备体系保障流程参数描述

Table 1. Aviation equipment system support process parameter description

类别	参数
战训任务参数	飞行日安排
	单日飞行批次
	每批飞行架次
	每日参训任务持续时间
	年总计划飞行时间
装备可靠性参数	MTBF
装备可靠性参数	飞机初始飞行时间
维修性参数	定检时间
	大修时间
	检查时间
保障性参数	航材备件申领时间
	车辆申领延误时间
	大修厂维修能力
	修理厂定检能力
	工具数量
	航材备件初始数量
	保障设备数量

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表 2 主要仿真参数

Table 2. Main simulation parameters

参数	数值
飞行日安排
单日飞行批次	3
每批飞行架次	4
每日参训任务持续时间/h	1.5
年总计划飞行时间/h	4 500
分系统1 MTBF/h	60
分系统2 MTBF/h	100
分系统3 MTBF/h	69
分系统4 MTBF/h	94
分系统5 MTBF/h	126
分系统6 MTBF/h	50
分系统7 MTBF/h	83
分系统8 MTBF/h	94
分系统9 MTBF/h	78
分系统10 MTBF/h	80
分系统11 MTBF/h	132
分系统12 MTBF/h	106
大修时间/d	300
定检时间/d	14
检查时间/min	22.5
航材备件申领时间/d	1
车辆申领延误时间/min	3
大修厂维修能力	2
修理厂定检能力	4
工具数量	24
航材备件初始数量	5
保障设备数量	24

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表 3 客观不确定变量分布参数

Table 3. Objective uncertain variable distribution parameters

分系统序号	a	b	k
1	0.010 1	0.006 1	0.869 5
2	0.006 2	0.004	1.113 7
3	0.008 9	0.005 1	0.869 4
4	0.005	0.005	0.631 3
5	0.003 8	0.003 6	0.623 7
6	0.011 7	0.007 5	0.860 5
7	0.005 9	0.005 1	0.589 9
8	0.005 7	0.003 7	0.565 3
9	0.008 4	0.003 5	0.769 8
10	0.006 3	0.005 3	0.628 5
11	0.004 4	0.002 6	0.698
12	0.009 4	0.001 5	37.380 2

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表 4 主观不确定变量分布参数

Table 4. Subjective uncertain variable distribution parameters

主观不确定性变量	三角模糊数
大修时间/d	(280，300，320)
定检时间/d	(7，14，21)
检查时间/min	(10，22.5，25)
航材备件申领时间/d	(0.5，1，1.5)
车辆申领延误时间/min	(2，3，4)

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