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�������պ����ѧѧ�� 2010, Vol. 36 Issue (2) :184-187    DOI:
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Risk modeling and entropy decision on large complex project
Ma Liyi, Qiu Wanhua, Yang Yaqin*
School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China

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Abstract�� To solve problems as large scale, complex structure, numerous risks and difficult to make decision of large complex project, the risk decision method was proposed, based on hierarchical modeling, risk filtration, risk ranking and entropy decision. The hierarchical holographic modeling technique was applied to identify system risk. The risk identification model of satellite system development was developed, which overcame the limitation of sole model describing risk sources. The risk filtration, ranking and management technique was used to measure the identified risk factors through qualitative assessment and quantitative analysis. All the risks were ranked and the essential risks were determined. The entropy decision model was finally applied to evaluate the key risks. The optimal program was determined. A case of satellite development program decision was developed by using this method, which provided a new method for the large complex project risk decision making.
Keywords�� risk analysis   model building   decision making   entropy     
Received 2008-12-18;
Fund:

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About author: ������(1977-),Ů,�����ܿ���,��ʿ��,maryliyi@126.com.
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������, ���һ�, ������.���͸�����Ŀ���ս�ģ���ؾ���[J]  �������պ����ѧѧ��, 2010,V36(2): 184-187
Ma Liyi, Qiu Wanhua, Yang Yaqin.Risk modeling and entropy decision on large complex project[J]  JOURNAL OF BEIJING UNIVERSITY OF AERONAUTICS AND A, 2010,V36(2): 184-187
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http://bhxb.buaa.edu.cn//CN/     ��     http://bhxb.buaa.edu.cn//CN/Y2010/V36/I2/184
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