北京航空航天大学学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 118-122.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于不确定性的设计方案经济可承受性分析

吕明云, 孙康文, 马云鹏, 武 哲   

  1. 北京航空航天大学 航空科学与工程学院, 北京 100191
  • 收稿日期:2009-03-02 出版日期:2010-01-31 发布日期:2010-09-13
  • 作者简介:吕明云(1969-),男,湖北公安人,副教授,lv503@buaa.edu.cn.

Economic affordability of aircraft conceptual/preliminary scheme based on uncertainty

Lü Mingyun,Sun Kangwen, Ma Yunpeng, Wu Zhe   

  1. School of Aeronautic Science and Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China
  • Received:2009-03-02 Online:2010-01-31 Published:2010-09-13

摘要: 研制周期中的不确定性因素对飞机总体方案的评估结果有着重要影响.通过对飞机设计过程中不确定性因素的分类及其相应处理方法的分析,建立了基于区间数层次分析法AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)和鲁棒设计RD(Robust Design)的概率多准则决策MCDM(Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making)方法,可用于处理不确定因素影响下的飞机总体设计方案评估问题,并使评估结果更具科学性.通过上述方法的引入,着重考虑了新技术的引入和寿命周期费用的波动对设计方案的影响,建立了基于不确定性的设计方案经济可承受性分析结构模型.最后,利用算例分析检验了上述分析模型的有效性.

Abstract: The uncertainty in research cycle was considered to be an important influence on aircraft conceptual/preliminary scheme evaluation (ACSE).Through the classification of uncertainties during the aircraft design process and analysis of their corresponding treatment methods, the probability multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method was made up, which was based on interval number analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the robust design (RD). It could be used to deal with the evaluation of aircraft conceptual/preliminary scheme, when the process exists a vast amount of uncertainty. Meanwhile, the result of the assessment was more scientific than traditional method. Taking account of new technology and life cycle cost fluctuation impact on design options, the above methods were utilized to analyze the economic affordability of aircraft conceptual/preliminary scheme (EAACS). And then, the structural model of EAACS was established. The result of analysis verifies the validity of the above methods.

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