北京航空航天大学学报 ›› 2008, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (12): 1445-1447.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

项目工程风险评估云判别模型设计

刘小龙, 邱菀华   

  1. 北京航空航天大学 经济管理学院, 北京 100191
  • 收稿日期:2007-12-26 出版日期:2008-12-31 发布日期:2010-09-16
  • 作者简介:刘小龙(1978-),男,山西忻州人,博士生,liuxl@buaa.edu.cn.

Model design of project risk assessment based on cloud theory

Liu Xiaolong, Qiu Wanhua   

  1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China
  • Received:2007-12-26 Online:2008-12-31 Published:2010-09-16

摘要: 针对工程项目的特点和项目风险定量评估任务,提出了基于云判别模型的风险评估方法.云理论是一种用于处理不确定性和含糊性知识的数学工具,可实现概念与数据之间的相互转换.在云理论的基础上,建立了综合能力模型以及风险评估云模型,提出了基于云理论项目工程风险评估的方法,解决了风险评估中定性语言到定量的转化问题.该方法通过分析项目生命周期中的具体风险与风险因素之间的因果关系,建立项目工程风险评价模型,拓展了在国内经济转轨时期项目工程风险模型的研究思路,并结合应用实例评价该方法对建立工程内部风险评价体系的应用价值.

Abstract: A risk evaluation method based on the cloud theory was put forward for evaluating project risk quantitatively. Cloud theory was proved to be an excellent mathematical tool for dealing with uncertain and vague description of objects, and it can realize the transforms between qualitative concepts and their quantitative expression . Based on the cloud theory, the system performance model and the cloud model of the risk assessment were proposed .A new way for project risk assessment was given and it can solve the transition problem between qualitative and quantitative in risk assessment. The project risk model was constructed by analyzing the causal relation between risk and risk factors, and the research way of project risk model was expanded in our country of a period of economy, and the applied value of the system of risk assessment was illustrated by practical application.

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