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�������պ����ѧѧ�� 2007, Vol. 33 Issue (12) :1466-1470    DOI:
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����������ѧ ���̹���ѧԺ, ���� 102206
Single-factor uncertainty analysis of project-s duration based on float
Li Xingmei, Qi Jianxun, Su Zhixiong, Wang Jing*
School of Business Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206

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Abstract�� In order to analyze the sensitivity of variety of single activity completion time to project-s duration, by probabilistic analysis principle and approach, the probability of terminative time-s change of activity under different conditions was confirmed, and the system of decision evaluation index was designed which contains the method of confirming correlative parameters in the system on the basis of total float theorem. The sensitivity of variety of critical activity-s completion time to project-s duration was analyzed with the analysis technique of single-factor sensitivity, and how to select critical activities which are the most sensitive to total time limit from all activities considered. Finally the process was validated and illuminated by illustrating. The system is helpful to supervise and control the sensitive activity to project duration, and contribute to project scheduling and planning, which establishs theoretic foundation for analyzing multi-factor uncertainty problem of project-s duration.
Keywords�� program evaluation and review technique   critical patch method   sensitivity analysis   evaluation index     
Received 2006-12-30;

������Ȼ��ѧ����������Ŀ(70671040); ���ҽ�������ʿѧ�Ƶ���л���������Ŀ(20050079008)

About author: ����÷(1971-),Ů,�ӱ��е���,��ʦ,xingmeil@163.com.
����÷,��ѫ,��־��,����.���ڻ���ʱ�����Ŀ���ڵ����ز�ȷ���Է���[J]  �������պ����ѧѧ��, 2007,V33(12): 1466-1470
Li Xingmei, Qi Jianxun, Su Zhixiong, Wang Jing.Single-factor uncertainty analysis of project-s duration based on float[J]  JOURNAL OF BEIJING UNIVERSITY OF AERONAUTICS AND A, 2007,V33(12): 1466-1470
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