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�������պ����ѧѧ�� 2006, Vol. 32 Issue (11) :1320-1323    DOI:
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Maximum entropy method for fault prior probabilities
Meng Xiaofeng, Ji Hong, Wang Guohua, Zhong Bo*
School of Instrument Science and Opto-electronics Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083, China

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Abstract�� To solve precision problem of fault prior probabilities, the calculation model of fault prior probabilities based on maximum entropy theory was proposed. Through this model, which could make full use of the given prior information as the constraints of maximum likelihood estimation and based on Lagrange function, the calculation problem of fault prior probabilities was transformed to non-constrained optimization problem. The non-constrained optimization problem was solved rapidly, based on the gradient method mixed by steepest decent method and Newton method. When the faults were overabundant in large scale system, the highly multidimensional fault space could be decomposed by the principle of decomposition of system. The fast calculation method of fault prior probabilities was given in lowly multidimensional space. With the comparison of the result calculated by the maximum entropy method and the MTTF(mean time to failure) method respectively, the maximum entropy method was proved to be more precise.
Keywords�� entropy   maximum likelihood estimation   Lagrange multipliers   gradient methods     
Received 2006-04-30;
About author: ������(1955-),��,������,����,mengxf@buaa.edu.cn.
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������, ����, ������, �Ӳ�.�������������ʵ�����ط���[J]  �������պ����ѧѧ��, 2006,V32(11): 1320-1323
Meng Xiaofeng, Ji Hong, Wang Guohua, Zhong Bo.Maximum entropy method for fault prior probabilities[J]  JOURNAL OF BEIJING UNIVERSITY OF AERONAUTICS AND A, 2006,V32(11): 1320-1323
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http://bhxb.buaa.edu.cn//CN/     ��     http://bhxb.buaa.edu.cn//CN/Y2006/V32/I11/1320
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