• 论文 •

计算故障先验概率的最大熵方法

1. 北京航空航天大学 仪器科学与光电工程学院, 北京 100083
• 收稿日期:2006-04-30 出版日期:2006-11-30 发布日期:2010-09-19
• 作者简介:孟晓风(1955-),男,重庆人,教授,mengxf@buaa.edu.cn.

Maximum entropy method for fault prior probabilities

Meng Xiaofeng, Ji Hong, Wang Guohua, Zhong Bo

1. School of Instrument Science and Opto-electronics Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083, China
• Received:2006-04-30 Online:2006-11-30 Published:2010-09-19

Abstract: To solve precision problem of fault prior probabilities, the calculation model of fault prior probabilities based on maximum entropy theory was proposed. Through this model, which could make full use of the given prior information as the constraints of maximum likelihood estimation and based on Lagrange function, the calculation problem of fault prior probabilities was transformed to non-constrained optimization problem. The non-constrained optimization problem was solved rapidly, based on the gradient method mixed by steepest decent method and Newton method. When the faults were overabundant in large scale system, the highly multidimensional fault space could be decomposed by the principle of decomposition of system. The fast calculation method of fault prior probabilities was given in lowly multidimensional space. With the comparison of the result calculated by the maximum entropy method and the MTTF(mean time to failure) method respectively, the maximum entropy method was proved to be more precise.