Monte Carlo method for system reliability evaluation using reliability confidence distribution
Zhang Yan1, Huang Min1, Zhao Yu1, Yu Dan2*
1. Dept. of System Engineering of Engineering Technology, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083, China;
2. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China
A Monte Carlo method was presented to ravel out the system reliability estimation problem of large and complex system′s reliability, which is a hot and difficult spot in the reliability engineering field. The reliability samples of system′s units from their reliability confidence distribution and system′s reliability estimation equation were combined in the method to simulate system running and get the system′s reliability. The difficult problem that no solution to get time samples from the discontinuous distributions is resolved by this method. Further more, the method has little limitation to the system′s structureand complexity that will expand its utilization. An instance was given to illustrate the method′s accuracy and availability in the estimation in a complex and large system through comparison with other reliability estimation methods which were generally use in the reliability engineering field.
Zhang Yan, Huang Min, Zhao Yu, Yu Dan.Monte Carlo method for system reliability evaluation using reliability confidence distribution[J] JOURNAL OF BEIJING UNIVERSITY OF AERONAUTICS AND A, 2006,V32(09): 1023-1025