北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2014, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (2): 66-73.DOI: 10.13766/j.bhsk.1008-2204.2013.0374

• 经济与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

人民币国际化条件分析:历史机遇与现实选择

刘辉1, 巴曙松2   

  1. 1. 东北大学 工商管理学院, 辽宁 沈阳 110004;
    2. 国务院发展研究中心 金融研究所, 北京 100010
  • 收稿日期:2013-08-30 出版日期:2014-03-25 发布日期:2014-03-24
  • 作者简介:刘辉(1973-),男,云南昆明人,博士研究生,研究方向为宏观金融、金融市场、经济转轨与金融发展等.

Condition Analysis on the Internationalization of RMB:Historical Opportunities and Realistic Selection

Liu Hui1, Ba Shusong2   

  1. 1. School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004, China;
    2. Finance Research Institute, State Council Development Research Center, Beijing 100010, China
  • Received:2013-08-30 Online:2014-03-25 Published:2014-03-24

摘要:

自2008年金融危机以来,人民币国际化进入窗口机遇期,包括人民币国际化的实质、历史契机和动因。在对人民币国际化的收益和风险进行分析的基础上,运用货币替代及货币竞争理论,通过博弈模型构建,论证了人民币国际化的现实选择,即可通过货币竞争,逐步实现对美元等货币的替代并实现区域化。

关键词: 人民币国际化, 货币替代理论, 货币竞争理论, 通货膨胀税, 收益, 风险, 博弈

Abstract:

The paper regards that the internationalization of RMB has entered a window of opportunity since the financial crisis in 2008. The paper first analyzes historical opportunities for the internationalization of RMB which includes the essence of RMB's internationalization, the historical turning point and the driving forces. Then it analyzes both the profits and risks during the process of RMB's internationalization. Finally based on the theory of currency substitution and competition, the paper builds up a game model for the realistic selection of RMB's internationalization. The paper suggests that China gradually substitute US dollar and other currencies with RMB to realize the regionalization of RMB by means of currency competition.

Key words: internationalization of RMB, theory of currency substitution, theory of currency competition, inflation tax, profits, risk, game

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