北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2016, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 7-12.DOI: 10.13766/j.bhsk.1008-2204.2015.0095

• 公共政策与治理 • 上一篇    下一篇

镇级地方政府投融资平台风险评估——以浙江省宁波市卫星城建设为例

赵振宇1, 陈红霞1, 朱祥波2   

  1. 1. 宁波大学 法学院, 浙江 宁波 315211;
    2. 华中科技大学 公共管理学院, 湖北 武汉 430074
  • 收稿日期:2015-02-13 出版日期:2016-09-25 发布日期:2016-08-23
  • 作者简介:赵振宇(1973-),男,吉林农安人,教授,博士,研究方向为投融资风险管理和房地产政策.
  • 基金资助:

    浙江省重点学科建设项目(XKW11D2013);宁波市与中国社科院共建研究中心课题(NZKT201322)

Risk Evaluation of Township-level Government Investment and Financing Platform: A Case Study of Exurb Construction in Ningbo of Zhejiang Province

ZHAO Zhenyu1, CHEN Hongxia1, ZHU Xiangbo2   

  1. 1. Law School, Ningbo University, Ningbo Zhejiang 315211, China;
    2. School of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430074, China
  • Received:2015-02-13 Online:2016-09-25 Published:2016-08-23

摘要:

地方政府投融资平台风险的不确定性,使得探寻风险致因和风险评估成为地方政府投融资平台风险分析的主要诉求。在科学构建评估指标体系的基础上,应用三角模糊数对镇级地方政府投融资平台风险进行评估,并借助浙江省宁波市卫星城建设投融资的具体数据开展实证分析。研究发现,地方政府风险和投融资平台经营风险带来的影响是最深远和最直接的,而战略风险、政策风险和法律风险带来的影响较小。对于一级指标下面的二级指标,产生影响较大的有合规性风险、战略实施风险、公司治理风险等。建议地方政府在设立投融资平台时,一应依据地方财政经济状况确定规模;二要加强平台内部治理结构和外部制度建设;三要建立风险评价和控制机制。

关键词: 地方政府, 投融资, 平台, 三角模糊数, 风险评估

Abstract:

Because of the risk uncertainty of local governments' investment and financing platform,finding out the cause of risk and evaluating the risk becomes the major demand for risk analysis of the local governments' investment and financing platform. Based on scientifically structured evaluation indicator system, this paper uses triangular fuzzy number method to assess the risks of local government investment and financing platform. An empirical analysis is conducted based on the specific data collected from exurb construction in Ningbo. The result shows that the risk of local government and company operation are the two main manifestations and their influences are also most far-reaching. The influences produced by strategy risk, policy risk and law risk are much smaller. For the secondary index, compliance risk, risk of strategy implementation and corporate governance risk have greater influence. In view of the result, the paper suggests that the local government determine the size with their own financial strength and formulate operation system according to the market rule. With the consummated operation system and risk control mechanisms, it is believed that the local government investment and financing platform will work more smoothly and efficiently.

Key words: local government, investment and financing, platform, triangular fuzzy number method, risk evaluation

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