北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2016, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (3): 97-107.DOI: 10.13766/j.bhsk.1008-2204.2016.0063

• 本期特约专家稿件 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于内生折旧率的中国行业层面资本存量估计

孙琳琳, 焦婕   

  1. 北京航空航天大学 公共管理学院, 北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-02 出版日期:2016-05-25 发布日期:2016-05-26
  • 作者简介:孙琳琳(1980-),女,河北邢台人,副教授,博士,研究方向为经济增长、全要素生产率和资本要素测算.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(71203005)

Capital Stock Estimation of Chinese Industries Based on Endogenous Depreciation Rate

SUN Linlin, JIAO Jie   

  1. School of Public Administration, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2016-03-02 Online:2016-05-25 Published:2016-05-26

摘要:

资本存量是宏观经济研究及政策制定中一个极其重要的变量,而在测算资本存量的过程中,核心变量折旧率的确定对结果具有关键性的影响。相比选取某一折旧率固定值,通过生产函数法对中国1981-2011年33个行业的固定资本折旧率进行测算的方法更加科学,更能反映中国现实的行业特征。在测算的折旧率结果的基础上,进一步运用永续盘存法进行各年份各行业资本存量的估计。结果表明,从横向上看,各行业的建筑资本存量及设备资本存量都存在着较大的行业差异,建筑存量尤为突出;从纵向上看,各行业的两类资本存量都具有明显的递增发展趋势,这与中国当前的经济形势以及行业特征大致吻合,在一定程度上能反映中国的宏观经济现状及行业结构特征。

关键词: 固定资本存量, 折旧率, 永续盘存法, 生产函数模型, 面板估计

Abstract:

Capital stock is a very important variable in macroeconomic study and policy formulation. In the process of estimating capital stock, capital depreciation rates of core variables play a key role. The thesis mainly discusses the estimation of depreciation rate of fixed capital of 33 industries in China from 1981 to 2011, using production function method which is more scientific than fixed depreciation rate in that it can better reflect the industry situation. Perpetual inventory method is then used to estimate the capital stock of different industries each year on the basis of the resulting depreciation rates. Horizontally speaking, the results show that there are large differences in building capital stocks and equipment capital stocks of different industries, with more noticeable differences in building capital stocks. Longitudinally speaking, these two kinds of capital stock show an obvious growth trend. The result of estimation is consistent with the present domestic economic situation and characteristics of industries, so they, to some extent, can reflect the macroeconomic situation and characteristics of industry structure in China.

Key words: fixed capital stock, depreciation rate, perpetual inventory method, production function model, panel data estimation

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