北京航空航天大学学报社科版 ›› 2021, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4): 124-130.DOI: 10.13766/j.bhsk.1008-2204.2020.0169

• 经济与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

建设项目社会稳定风险因素权重确定方法优选——基于肯德尔协同系数的运用

张曦, 戴二玲, 黄嘉南   

  1. 福州市规划设计研究院集团有限公司, 福建 福州 350108
  • 收稿日期:2020-04-24 发布日期:2021-08-06
  • 作者简介:张曦(1968-),男,山东潍坊人,教授级高级工程师,本科,研究方向为项目管理、项目社会稳定风险评估.
  • 基金资助:
    福州市科技计划项目(2017-S-141)

Optimization of Method for Determining Weight of Social Stability Risk Factors in Construction Projects: Based on Application of Kendal Synergy Coefficient

ZHANG Xi, DAI Erling, HUANG Jia'nan   

  1. Fuzhou Planning & Design Research Institute Group Company Limited, Fuzhou FuJian 350108, China
  • Received:2020-04-24 Published:2021-08-06

摘要: 正确的风险因素权重确定方法,关系到建设项目社会稳定风险估计结果的合理性。基于肯德尔协同系数,在与所选权重确定方法相对应的风险问卷调查成果数据中,分别多次随机抽样产生对照检验样本,进行原始和排名秩次双排序、原始和等级的双赋值(分),计算平均肯德尔协同系数并进行显著性检验,以显著性检验结果最优,即检验样本数据一致性程度最高者所对应的权重确定方法为选定结果。实例分析结果表明:肯德尔协同系数可实现权重确定方法的定量优选,保障风险因素权重值计算结果的合理性。

关键词: 建设项目, 风险因素, 肯德尔协同系数, 权重确定方法, 赋值, 显著性检验

Abstract: The correct method of determining the weight of risk factors is related to the rationality of the risk assessment results of social stability of construction projects. Based on Kendall synergy coefficient, multiple random sampling was used to generate control test samples in the risk questionnaire outcome data corresponding to the selected weighting method. Then the samples are ranked and assigned with points, followed by calculating the average Kendall synergy coefficient and significance testing. The weight determination method corresponds to the one with the highest degree of consistency of the sample data, which is the optimal result of significance testing. The results of example analysis show that Kendall synergy coefficient can realize the quantitative optimization of the weight determination method and ensure the rationality of the weight value calculation results of risk factors.

Key words: construction projects, risk factors, Kendall synergy coefficient, weight determination method, assignment, significance testing

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