北京航空航天大学学报社科版 ›› 2022, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 40-51.DOI: 10.13766/j.bhsk.1008-2204.2021.1030

• 公共政策与治理 • 上一篇    下一篇

子女数量、社会保障供给对代际转移方向的影响——基于CFPS2018调查数据的实证分析

贾洪波, 谢沁璇   

  1. 北京航空航天大学 社会保障研究中心, 北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2021-11-25 发布日期:2022-03-30
  • 作者简介:贾洪波(1976—),男,甘肃镇原人,教授,博士,研究方向为社会养老保险、社会医疗保险、社会保障经济理论与实践.
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(72074016);国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD077);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(YWF-21-BJ-W-127)

Effect of the Number of Children and the Supply of Social Security on the Direction of Intergenerational Transfer: An Empirical Analysis Based on CFPS2018 Survey Data

JIA Hongbo, XIE Qinxuan   

  1. Research Center for Social Security, Beihang University, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2021-11-25 Published:2022-03-30

摘要: 采用2018年中国家庭追踪调查问卷(CFPS2018)数据,在同时考虑代际转移方向、父代和子代双方的人口学特征以及老人参加社会保障项目现实情况的基础上,探讨子女数量和社会保障供给对代际转移方向的影响。研究结果表明,子女数量对经济代际转移方向和照顾代际转移方向均有正向显著影响。相对于未参加各类社会保障的老人而言,参加养老保险的老人更易发生向下的经济代际转移,参加医疗保险的老人更不易发生向上的经济代际转移但更易发生向下的照顾代际转移,领取其他政府补助的老人更不易发生向上的经济代际转移。是否参加医疗保险在子女数量对向下的经济代际转移这一影响路径上的中介效应显著,是否领取其他政府补助在子女数量对向上的经济代际转移这一影响路径上的中介效应也显著。提出,未来需要落实国家三孩生育政策、开拓和创新养老服务模式以及构建高质量的社会保障体系。

关键词: 子女数量, 社会保障供给, 代际转移, 中介效应, CFPS2018调查数据

Abstract: Based on the survey data of CFPS2018 (2018 China Family Panel Studies), this paper aims to explore the effect of the number of children and the supply of social security on the direction of intergenerational transfer. While taking into account the direction of intergenerational transfer, the demographic characteristics of parents and their children, and whether the elderly are covered by social security programs, the study finds that the number of children has a significant positive effect on the direction of economic intergenerational transfer as well as on the direction of care intergenerational transfer. Compared with the elderly who don’t join any social security programs, those who are covered by old-age insurance are more likely to experience downward economic intergenerational transfers, while those who are covered by medical insurance are less likely to obtain upward economic intergenerational transfers, but are more likely to transfer care to their children, and those who enjoy other government subsidies are less likely to get economic transfers from their children. In addition, with the number of children as the mediating factor, whether the elderly have the medical insurance has a significant mediating effect on the downward economic intergenerational transfer, and whether they have other government subsidies has a significant mediating effect on the upward economic intergenerational transfer. Therefore, it is essential to implement the national three-child policy, develop and innovate the service model for the elderly, and build a high-quality social security system in the future.

Key words: number of children, supply of social security, intergeneration transfer, mediating effect, CFPS2018 survey data

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