北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2008, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (2): 28-31.

• 公共管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

关于北京市政府支出与居民消费的研究

徐 震, 李筱光   

  1. 北京航空航天大学 公共管理学院, 北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2007-06-29 出版日期:2008-06-25 发布日期:2010-05-13
  • 作者简介:徐震(1983-),男,吉林吉林人,硕士研究生,研究方向为应用经济学.
  • 基金资助:

    北京市社科基金资助项目(06BaJG108)

Government Spending and Private Consumption of Beijing

XU Zhen, LI Xiao-guang   

  1. School of Public Administration, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronau tics, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2007-06-29 Online:2008-06-25 Published:2010-05-13
  • Supported by:

    北京市社科基金资助项目(06BaJG108)

摘要:

利用北京市城乡居民1985年~2005年的人均消费、政府支出和可支配收入等数据,以跨期替 代的居民消费模型为基础,通过建立协整方程和误差修正模型对政府支出如何影响居民消费 进行了实证研究。研究发现,政府支出对居民消费支出具有挤入效应,且挤入效应在长期内 明显强于短期;决定城乡居民消费水平最重要的因素是可支配收入的增加;农村居民消费对 政府支出的敏感性比城镇居民低,其消费更加依赖于可支配收入的增长。

关键词: 政府支出, 居民消费, 协整理论

Abstract:

Based on an inter-temporal substitution model, this paper analyzes the effects of government spending shocks on private consumption in Beijing with the Cointeg ration and ECM model. The empirical study finds out some conclusions: First, the government spending may crowd in private consumption, which is more effective i n the short run than in the long run. Second, the disposable income is the most important factor that affects the gross private consumption. Finally, the rural residents' consumption is less sensitive to the government spending while more s ensitive to disposable income than urban residents'.

Key words: government spending, private consumption, cointegration

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