中国肉类产品贸易波动的影响因素研究——基于CMS模型的实证分析

doi:10.13766/j.bhsk.1008-2204.2016.0290

北京航空航天大学学报（社会科学版） ›› 2018, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (6): 53-59.DOI: 10.13766/j.bhsk.1008-2204.2016.0290

中国肉类产品贸易波动的影响因素研究——基于CMS模型的实证分析

刘春鹏, 肖海峰

中国农业大学经济管理学院, 北京 100083

收稿日期:2016-08-06 出版日期:2018-12-25 发布日期:2018-12-12
作者简介:刘春鹏(1991-),男,黑龙江肇东人,博士研究生,研究方向为农产品市场与政策.
基金资助:
国家现代农业（绒毛用羊）产业技术体系产业经济研究项目（CARS-40-20）

Empirical Research on the Influencing Factors of China Meat Products Trade Fluctuation: Based on Constant Market Share Model

LIU Chunpeng, XIAO Haifeng

College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China

Received:2016-08-06 Online:2018-12-25 Published:2018-12-12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据UN COMTRADE数据库的相关数据，在分析1992—2014年中国肉类产品进出口贸易状况的基础上，运用恒定市场份额模型，对影响中国肉类产品进出口的主要因素进行研究。研究发现，在出口方面，我国肉类产品出口增长的动力主要来自于世界市场需求增长，而出口竞争力变化和出口产品结构调整对出口波动也有着重要影响；在进口方面，国际肉类产品更具竞争优势是推动中国肉类产品进口的主导因素，此外，进口结构优化和国际市场供给快速增长也是促进中国肉类产品进口增长的重要因素。

关键词: 肉类产品, 进出口贸易, CMS模型, 竞争效应, 结构效应

Abstract:

Based on the data from UN COMTRADE, this paper analyzed the present situation of Chinese meat products trade from 1992 to 2014. And Constant Market Share Model was applied to analyze the influencing factors of the import and export changes of Chinese meat products. The results showed that in terms of exports, growing demands in the international meat markets was the most significant driving force for Chinese meat export growth. Meanwhile the change of the competitive power and the structure of export products also had an important impact on export. In terms of imports, the competitiveness of foreign meat products was the most principal reason for the growth of China's meat products imports. Besides, the optimization of import structure and the rapid growth of meat products supply in the international market were the key factors that promoted the growth of China's imports of meat products as well.

Key words: meat products, trade, constant market share model, competitive effect, structure effect

中图分类号:

F762

刘春鹏, 肖海峰. 中国肉类产品贸易波动的影响因素研究——基于CMS模型的实证分析[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报（社会科学版）, 2018, 31(6): 53-59.

LIU Chunpeng, XIAO Haifeng. Empirical Research on the Influencing Factors of China Meat Products Trade Fluctuation: Based on Constant Market Share Model[J]. JOURNAL OF BEIJING UNIVERSITY OF AERONAUTICS AND A, 2018, 31(6): 53-59.

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中国肉类产品贸易波动的影响因素研究——基于CMS模型的实证分析

Empirical Research on the Influencing Factors of China Meat Products Trade Fluctuation: Based on Constant Market Share Model

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