关键词: 房地产, 土地购置成本, 信贷扩张, Granger因果关系检验, 竣工面积

Abstract:

Based on Chinese provincial panel data during 2003-2012, this paper tests the relationship among the rising real estate price, the credit expansion and the increasing land price by Granger causal model. The result shows that there is a mechanism of mutual feedback among the three factors above-mentioned. After evaluating the influence factors which lead to the rising real estate prices, it is found out that urban workers wages, the increasing average land price and credit expansion have an important positive influence on the rising real estate prices; but the supply of real estate has a negative effect on the rising real estate prices. It is very important to control fast rising real estate prices by increasing the supply of real estate, limiting real estate credit expansion and stabilizing land price.

Key words: real estate, land acquisition costs, credit expansion, Granger causality test, completion area