北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2015, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 97-101.DOI: 10.13766/j.bhsk.1008-2204.2014.0096

• 经济与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

房地产价格上涨与信贷扩张、地价上涨-基于省际面板数据的分析

阳素文   

  1. 贺州学院 经济与管理学院, 广西 贺州 542899
  • 收稿日期:2014-03-17 出版日期:2015-01-25 发布日期:2015-01-24
  • 作者简介:阳素文(1984-),女,广西灵川人,讲师,硕士研究生,研究方向为产业结构与产业组织.
  • 基金资助:

    2012年广西高校科研基金资助项目(201204LX453)

Effect of Real Estate Prices Surge on Credit Expansion and Land Prices Rising:Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

Yang Suwen   

  1. College of Economics and Management, Hezhou University, Hezhou Guangxi 542899, China
  • Received:2014-03-17 Online:2015-01-25 Published:2015-01-24

摘要:

根据2003-2012年中国省际面板数据,运用Granger因果关系检验模型检验房地产价格上涨与信贷扩张、地价上涨三者之间的作用关系。研究结果表明,房地产价格上涨与信贷扩张、地价上涨三者之间存在着相互反馈的作用机制。对房地产价格上涨的各影响因素进行估计后发现城镇劳动者工资上涨、地价上涨和信贷扩张对房地产价格上涨产生正向影响,房地产供给对房地产价格上涨具有负向影响。增加房地产供给,限制房地产业信贷规模和平抑地价是抑制房地产价格过快上涨的重要途径。

关键词: 房地产, 土地购置成本, 信贷扩张, Granger因果关系检验, 竣工面积

Abstract:

Based on Chinese provincial panel data during 2003-2012, this paper tests the relationship among the rising real estate price, the credit expansion and the increasing land price by Granger causal model. The result shows that there is a mechanism of mutual feedback among the three factors above-mentioned. After evaluating the influence factors which lead to the rising real estate prices, it is found out that urban workers wages, the increasing average land price and credit expansion have an important positive influence on the rising real estate prices; but the supply of real estate has a negative effect on the rising real estate prices. It is very important to control fast rising real estate prices by increasing the supply of real estate, limiting real estate credit expansion and stabilizing land price.

Key words: real estate, land acquisition costs, credit expansion, Granger causality test, completion area

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