Abstract:

This study selects 30 provinces and cities from 1987-2012 urban residents' macro food consumption data, using the two-stage EASI model to estimate urban residents' food demand elasticity, and predicts the evolution of the urban residents' food consumption trend. The research results indicate that compared with the QUAIDS model, the EASI model fits Chinese urban residents' food consumption trend more accurately. It is expected that when the per capita disposable income reaches 120 thousand yuan, the family food demand will reach the saturation point in quantity. By then, urban residents will significantly improve their food quality, and the food expenditure share will slowly increase. Changes of Chinese citizens' food consumption structure basically conform to the Bennett's laws. The urban residents will gradually decline their calories from grain proportionally, but gradually increase those from meat and aquatic products proportionally. Moreover, as incomes rise, plant and animal consumption proportion will reach dynamic equilibrium.

Key words: urban residents, food consumption structure, income, EASI Model, elasticity of demand