后危机时代的人民币国际化: 一个文献综述
Internationalization of Renminbi in Post-crisis Era: a Review
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摘要: 金融危机爆发后,人民币国际化问题成为学术界关注的焦点。从成本和收益、人民币国际化的影响及路径选择等三个方面对人民币国际化问题进行述评。研究表明:人民币国际化是一把"双刃剑",为了降低国际化过程中的金融风险,最大化国际化的收益,中国必须权衡人民币国际化的成本和收益;在浮动汇率制度下,人民币国际化会对中国的宏观经济政策产生直接影响,人民币境外流通量的增加降低了中央银行货币政策的效力;中国欠发达的金融市场以及严格的金融管制特征,使得人民币要真正发展成为有影响的国际货币,还有很长的一段路要走。在未来几年中,较为可行的现实选择是将人民币发展成为有影响力的区域货币。Abstract: Internationalization of Renminbi has become the focus of research after the financial crisis.This paper reviews the internationalization of Renminbi from three aspects.The paper holds the view that the internationalization of Renminbi is a double-edged sword and China must judge and weigh its cost and benefit to reduce financial risk. The internationalization of Renminbi will produce direct influence on macroeconomic policies of China under the floating rate regime. Due tothe underdeveloped financial market and the strict financial control in China, the more realistic choice is making Renminbi a regional currency in the next few years.