China's Agricultural Stagnation in 1984-1988
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摘要: 1978年开始试行的家庭联产承包责任制极大推动了中国农村经济的复苏和增长,但其在全国普及后,中国农业却陷入增长滞缓泥沼.基于对河南省商城县一位老农民的采访,通过个案分析发现当时乡、村两级地方组织以提留统筹费名义向农民收取的不合理税款削弱了农民的劳作积极性,使得大量农村人口外流,从而导致1984—1988年间中国农业增长陷入滞缓境地.此外,分析发现1987年农业增长的正向波动缘于科学技术运用的滞后效应.1978—1988年间全国农业,特别是河南省农业的宏观数据又再次验证了提留统筹费对农业增长的消极影响和科学技术在运用过程中存在的滞后效应,由此建议将农业赋税制度作为农村经济改革的重要抓手,同时着力完善科学技术在农村的引入推广方式.Abstract: Agricultural growth in cropping sector was trapped into stagnation after Household Responsibility System had been completely popularized in rural areas in China. Based on a case study from Henan province, it is discovered that "Tiliu" and "Tongchou" taxes allocated by the local government discouraged the agricultural production when farmers with heavy tax burden flowed to cities for jobs. Hence, the agricultural stagnation from 1984—1988 is enunciated. The Hysteresis hypothesis that it takes some time for farmers to adopt new technology is also proposed to explain the sudden impulse of agricultural growth in 1987. The state and provincial macro agricultural data are used to validate the analysis. The conclusions suggest the agricultural fiscal system be a core object of economic reform in rural areas in China. In addition, the way of introducing new technology in such areas should be improved.
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