ISSN 1008-2204
CN 11-3979/C

“一带一路”倡议对中国出版物出口的影响基于双重差分模型的实证分析

Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on China’s Publications Export: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Difference-in-Differences Model

  • 摘要: 发展出版贸易是中国推进与“一带一路”沿线国家文化交流的重要途径。为了探讨“一带一路”倡议是否有助于中国出版业在政策和资金的扶持下实现对外贸易的新发展,采用双重差分模型研究“一带一路”倡议对中国出版物出口贸易的促进效应和作用机制,并在此基础上从经济发展水平、是否为六大经济走廊沿线国家和文化距离三个方面,分析了“一带一路”倡议对不同国家的异质性影响。研究发现,中国出版物出口贸易整体处于成长阶段,“一带一路”倡议显著促进了中国的出版物出口贸易发展,且该正向效应存在时间上的滞后性;“一带一路”倡议通过优化沿线国家科技发展水平和提高对外直接投资,促进了出版物出口贸易规模的扩大。异质性研究表明,“一带一路”倡议对中低等收入国家、六大经济走廊沿线国家的出版物出口贸易发展具有显著正向影响,且对文化背景相似国家的贸易的促进效应最明显。

     

    Abstract: Developing publishing trade is an important way for China to promote cultural exchanges with other countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In order to explore whether the BRI can help China’s publishing industry to achieve the new development of foreign trade with the support of policies and funds, this paper studies the effect and mechanism of the BRI on China’s publications export trade by using the difference-in-differences model. Based on this, it analyzes heterogeneous effect of the BRI on different countries from the three aspects of economic development level, Whether it is a country along six economic corridors and cultural distance. The study finds that China’s publications export trade is in the growth stage, the BRI has significantly promoted the development of China’s publications export trade, and there is a time lag in this positive effect. The BRI promotes the expansion of publications export trade by optimizing the scientific and technological development level of countries involved in the BRI and increasing foreign direct investment. In addition, heterogeneity study shows that the BRI has a significant positive impact on the development of publications export trade in low- and middle-income countries and countries along six economic corridors, and the trade promotion effect is the most obvious for countries with similar cultural backgrounds.

     

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