ISSN 1008-2204
CN 11-3979/C

防止外空军备竞赛的规则博弈与未来发展

Rules Game and Future Development of the Preventing an Arms Race in Outer Space

  • 摘要: 多年来, 美国一直通过程序上的软性对抗抵制具有约束力的外空军控文书的谈判工作。中俄提出的《防止在外空放置武器、对外空物体使用或威胁使用武力条约》草案(即PPWT草案)遭到了美国的强烈反对。中俄也试图通过联合国大会决议成立"防止外空军备竞赛的进一步切实措施"政府专家组以推进外空军控文书的实质性谈判。美国及其西方盟友近年来开始通过"负责任外空行为准则"的谈判意图达成损害中俄外空权益的国际规则。这种基于政治化考虑推动的所谓"负责任外空行为准则"有可能确立与现有国际法不一致的"标准", 所谓"空间威胁"在现有国际法之下有其合法性和合理性。在防止外空军备竞赛的未来走向上, 两大阵营之间的分歧很难弥合, 在可预见的未来, 无论是程序上还是规则上的激烈政治博弈都将持续进行下去。

     

    Abstract: For years, the United States has resisted the negotiation of a binding instrument on outer space arms control through procedural confrontation. The draft Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Space, the Threat or Use of Force Against Space Objects (PPWT) proposed by China and Russia met with strong opposition from the United States. China and Russia have also tried to set up a group of governmental experts on "Further Practical Measures to Prevent an Arms Race in Outer Space" through the UN General Assembly resolution to advance the substantive negotiations on the above-mentioned instruments. In recent years, the United States and its western allies have attempted to begin to negotiate the "norms of responsible space behavior" with the intention of establishing international rules that undermine the rights and interests of China and Russia in outer space. The so-called "norms of responsible space behavior" based on political considerations may establish "standards" that are inconsistent with existing international law, and the so-called "space threat" has its legitimacy and legality under existing international law. The gap between the two camps will not be easily bridged, and intense political jockeying, both procedural and rule-based, will continue for the foreseeable future.

     

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