ISSN 1008-2204
CN 11-3979/C

绿色信贷政策如何影响企业的违约风险?

How does the Green Credit Policy Affect the Default Risk of Enterprises?

  • 摘要: 以2009—2023年中国A股上市公司为样本,对绿色信贷政策是否影响企业的违约风险进行了研究。研究结果表明,绿色信贷政策的实施总体上会降低重污染企业的违约风险,这种影响在国有企业、机构投资者占比高和信息披露程度高的企业更为明显。该政策主要通过降低企业负债和激励企业创新来降低重污染企业的违约风险。动态检验结果显示,在短期内政策实施带来的企业权益市场价值下降大于其负债规模的降低,而之后,政策实施带来的企业负债规模下降作用逐渐增强。同时,该政策激励了企业创新,因而重污染企业违约风险的降低趋势在较长期比较显著。该研究丰富了绿色信贷政策和违约风险影响因素的讨论,也厘清了绿色信贷政策对重污染企业违约风险的动态影响和潜在作用机制。

     

    Abstract: Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2023, this paper examines whether the green credit policy affect the default risk of enterprises. The findingss indicate that the implementation of the green credit policy generally reduces the default risk of heavily polluting enterprises, especially in state-owned enterprises or firms with more substantial external supervision and a higher level of information disclosure. It can also be observed that this policy decreases heavily polluting enterprises' default risk mainly by lowering their debt levels and incentivizing corporate innovation. Dynamic test results show that in the short term, the decrease in corporate equity market value resulting from policy implementation outweighs the reduction in debt size. Subsequently, however, the effect of this policy on the reduction of their default risk is gradually enhanced with time. The potential benefits brought by encouraging enterprises to carry out technological innovation can also explain the long-term decline of their default risk. This study enriches the discussion on green credit policies and the influencing factors of default risk, and also clarifies the dynamic impact and potential mechanism through which green credit policies affect the default risk of heavily polluting enterprises.

     

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