ISSN 1008-2204
CN 11-3979/C

应对不确定性:政策试验研究述评与展望

Dealing with Uncertainty: Review and Prospect of the Research on Policy Experimentation

  • 摘要: 当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局,政策制定面临的不确定性因素显著增多。政策试验作为应对不确定性的一种强化学习机制,通过在局部范围内推进政策创新,检验新方案的效果,增进对政策问题及方案有效性的认知,降低决策风险,提高公共政策的适用性和有效性。由于不确定性状况存在差异性,政策试验具有多样化的应用场景和功能定位。既有文献围绕政策试验的目的和类型开展了大量研究,剖析了政策试验的性质、组织模式、认知逻辑与功能定位,建构了多样化的理论模型,影响较大的有民主试验主义模型、试验主义治理模式、试验学习模型、适应性治理模型。研究通过文献梳理呈现已有研究的知识积累,在理论层面有助于深化对政策试验如何应对不确定性的理解,在实践层面对于优化政策试验的机制设计具有应用价值。

     

    Abstract: The world is undergoing the greatest changes in a century, with a significant increase in uncertain factors facing policymaking. As an intensive learning mechanism to deal with uncertainty, policy experimentation promotes policy innovation in the local range and test the effectiveness of new policies. The purpose is to enhance the understanding of policy issues, reduce decision-making risks, and improve the applicability and validity of public policies. Due to the difference of uncertainty, there are differentiated application scenarios and functional localizations of policy experimentation. Existing studies have carried out a great deal of research on the purposes and types of policy experimentation, analyzed the attribute, organizational model, cognitive logic and functional localization of policy experimentation, and constructed diverse theoretical models. The most influential models include democratic experimentalism, experimentalist governance, experimental learning and adaptive governance. This article presents the knowledge accumulation of existing research through literature review, which helps to deepen the understanding of policy experimentation in dealing with uncertainty at the theoretical level, and also has application value for optimizing the mechanism design of policy experimentation.

     

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