ISSN 1008-2204
CN 11-3979/C

信用修复、融资平台债务收缩与经济发展

Credit Restoration, LGFV Debt Contraction, and Economic Development

  • 摘要: 2023年9月国办发“35号文”首次以中央文件系统部署金融支持融资平台化债与转型,标志着地方债务治理实现制度性转折,进入以硬约束为核心的系统攻坚阶段。研究基于2021—2025年地级市季度面板数据,利用政策前非标准化债券与商业汇票违约舆情刻画地区债务风险暴露,构造二元与强度双重差分模型,考察“35号文”对地区经济增长的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:相较于低风险暴露地区,政策后高风险暴露地区实际GDP同比增速平均提高约0.561个百分点;风险暴露强度每增加1个对数单位,政策后的经济增速相对改善幅度提高约0.425个百分点。该经济增长效应主要体现为短期改善,在财政自给率较低、非标准化债券占比更高、短期到期压力更大的地区更为明显。机制检验表明,“35号文”推动高风险暴露地区城投债利差平均下降约0.655个百分点,抑制债务扩张,并促进平台市场化转型。本研究为理解此次“35号文”化债的短期宏观效应提供了经验证据。

     

    Abstract: In September 2023, the State Council General Office issued "Document No. 35" (2023), which for the first time systematically deployed central-level financial support for debt resolution and transformation of local government financing vehicle (LGFV). This marked an institutional turning point in local debt governance, ushering in a new phase of systematic system-wide risk resolution centered on hard constraints. Based on a quarterly panel of prefecture-level cities from 2021 to 2025, this study measures regional debt risk exposure using pre-policy default-related public sentiment on non-standard financing and commercial paper, and employs both binary and intensity difference-in-differences (DID) models to examine the impact of "Document No. 35" on regional economic growth and its underlying mechanisms. The findings show that ,relative to low-risk-exposure regions, high-risk-exposure regions experienced an average increase of approximately 0.561 percentage points in year-on-year real GDP growth after policy implementation. Moreover, for each one-log-unit increase in risk exposure intensity, the relative improvement in post-policy economic growth rises by about 0.425 percentage points. This effect is primarily short-term and more pronounced in regions with lower fiscal self-sufficiency, higher non-standard financing shares, and greater short-term debt-maturity pressure. Mechanism tests indicate that the policy reduced city investment bond credit spreads by an average of 0.655 percentage points in high-risk regions, curbed debt expansion, and promoted the market-oriented transformation of financing platforms. This study paper provides empirical evidence for understanding the short-term macroeconomic effects of the current round of local debt-resolution.

     

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