Abstract: Establishing a scientific and rigorous system for national cultural security risk assessment is an essential requirement for strengthening cultural security defenses, fostering a virtuous cycle between high-quality cultural development and high-level cultural security, and accelerating the building of a culturally strong nation. From the perspective of balancing development and security, this study constructs a Value Structure Discourse Technology analytical framework by integrating theories of cultural leadership, cultural soft power, and coaxial governance. By comprehensively applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process, the Decision Experiment and Evaluation Laboratory Method, and the Interpretive Structural Modeling, this study systematically identifies, measures, and analyzes the influencing factors of cultural security risks and the composition of an indicator system for cultural security risk assessment. Cultural security risks are categorized into four types: strategic cultural system risks, deep-seated cultural development risks, competitive cultural conflict risks, and digital-intelligent cultural alienation risks. The assessment indicator system comprises 4 first-level indicators, 11 second-level indicators, and 33 third-level indicators. The study indicates that cultural leadership, the effectiveness of cultural institutional implementation, the capacity to counter cultural infiltration, and the application of artificial intelligence technology are the most critical factors driving the development of the cultural security risk assessment system. Based on these findings, the study proposes policy recommendations, including upholding the leadership of the Communist Party of China and strengthening value-based guidance; understanding development patterns and improving the construction system; fostering cultural confidence and promoting mutual learning through exchange; and adhering to systemic empowerment to advance targeted governance. These recommendations are intended to provide guidance for coordinating China's cultural development and security and advancing the modernization of cultural governance.