财政幻觉假说的实证检验

The Empirical Test of Fiscal Illusion Hypothesis

摘要: 财政幻觉假说是公共选择理论下解释政府规模增长的理论之一。依据财政幻觉假说的经验方程，将“财政幻觉”分解为“赤字幻觉”与“预期幻觉”，以中国1978～2004年的年度数据，采用邹氏转折点检验、协整分析和误差修正模型，对“财政幻觉”与政府规模增长的关系进行实证检验。结果表明，“财政幻觉”是中国政府规模增长的原因之一，其中“赤字幻觉 ”的存在未得到显著证实，但“预期幻觉”对政府规模有正的显著影响。

Abstract: The Fiscal Illusion Hypothesis is one of the theories explaining the increase of government size under the Public Choice Theory. Based on the empiric al equation of Fiscal Illusion Hypothesis, the “Fiscal Illusion” was separated into “Deficit Illusion” and “Expectation Illusion”. Using the annual data o f China from 1978 to 2004, the relationship between the “Fiscal Illusion” and the increase of government size was demonstrated with the Chow Turning Point tes t, integration analysis and vector error correction model. It was found that the “Fiscal Illusion” was one reason of the increase of China's government size. The existence of the “Deficit Illusion” was not confirmed remarkably, but the “Expectation Illusion” has a positive effect on the increase of government siz e.