中国非寿险市场承保周期的存在性研究

基金项目: 教育部人文社会科学研究2007年度青年基金资助项目(07JC790072);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(70531010);创新研究群体科学基金资助项目(70521001)

详细信息

Study on the Existence of Underwriting Cycles in Chinese Non-life Market

School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astro nautics, Beijing 100191, China

摘要: 承保周期源于保险供给与需求的周期性波动,它以承保利润、保险费率的周期性变化为主要特征。选取中国1980年～2006年的年度数据,采用二阶自回归模型和谱分析法两种方法来检验中国整个非寿险市场是否存在承保周期现象。经检验发现,中国非寿险市场确实存在承保周期,且存在12.5年～ 16.7年的长承保周期和5.6年左右的中周期。该结果与亚洲非寿险市场的承保周期基本类似。
- 承保周期 /
- 非寿险市场 /
- 谱分析 /
- 二阶自回归模型
Abstract: Underwriting cycle involves from the cyclical fluctuations in insurance supply a nd demand. And the main features of underwriting cycle are the seasonal changes of underwriting profit and premium rates. The data in this paper is annual data from 1980 to 2006 in Chinese market. This study uses two methods: second-order autoregressive model and spectral analysis to test the existence of underwriting cycles in the entire non-life insurance market of China.We find that cycles do exist: the long cycle is 12.5-16.7 years and the middle cycle is 5.6 years. The results keep consistent with the ones in Asian non-life insurance market.
- underwriting cycle /
- non-life insurance market /
- spectral analysis /
- second-order autoregressive model

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