积极财政政策有效性的实证研究
A Research on the Efficiency of Positive Financial Policy
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摘要: 在政府债务对居民消费的影响方面,"凯恩斯主义"和"李嘉图主义"提出了对立的观点。 通过对"凯恩斯主义"和"李嘉图主义"两种政府债务观的检验,利用计量经济学方法探讨 了积极的财政政策在中国的适用性。结果表明,在中国目前经济转型阶段,积极的财政政策 有利于促进居民消费增长,李嘉图等价定理虽不成立,但它在财政政策和政府债务规模的控 制上,对中国仍有一定的指导意义。Abstract: With regard to the effect of government debt on household consumption, there is a sharp contrast between the "Keynesian1" view and the "Ricardian" view. Thi s paper uses econometric methods to study the efficiency of positive financial p olicy in China by testing the feasibility of both "Keynesian" and "Ricardian " views on government debt. The findings show that at China-s current stage of economic restructuring, positive financial policy can promote the growth of hous ehold consumption, the Ricardian Equivalence theorem is not tenable, but it stil l has some guiding significance on the control of financial policy and the scale of government debt.