再次发生SARS疫情的情况模拟分析

详细信息

Simulation and Analysis of Probable SARS Recurrence

Center of Complex Data Analysis and Research, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083, China

摘要: 通过定义评估SARS疫情状态的标志性参数，给出对SARS疫情发展进行预测的统计模型，并利用该模型对再次发生SARS疫情的情况进行模拟分析，指出社会公共卫生体系把握应对时机的基本期限。论文的研究结果表明，只要坚持采取早发现、早报告、早隔离、早治疗的措施，完善发烧排查的制度，就完全有可能把SARS疫病的流行趋势遏止在萌芽状态，从而避免再次出现恶性的疫病流行过程。
- SARS疫情 /
- 预测模型 /
- 模拟分析
Abstract: By defining an indicator index system that depicts the epidemic situation of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome(SARS), this paper presents a predictive modeling of SARS epidemic. The simulation about the epidemic situation of SARS recurrence is studied based on this modeling. Accordingly the time limit for healthcare system to take actions if SARS recurs is suggested. The result of research indicates that SARS can get control at the beginning if effective actions are taken in time, hereby large-scale prevalence of SARS will be avoided.
- epidemic situation of SARS /
- predictive modeling /
- simulation analysis

[1]	王惠文，李大鹏，龙文.SARS疫情的状态评估和预测建模研究[J].北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版)，2003，(2)：1-6.
[2]	郇极.SARS疫情预测数学模型(概要和计算示例)[R].北京航空航天大学机械工程与自动化学院,2003-04-17.
[3]	王正行. 北京SARS疫情60天的初步分析[R]. 北京大学物理学院，2003-05.