Evaluation and Predictive Modeling on Epidemic Situation of SARS
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摘要: 从定义SARS疫情发展状态的标志参数出发,给出对疫情发展过程进行阶段划分的基本方法。按照这些标志参数在各个阶段的取值,可以分析SARS疫情从爆发到衰减过程中的关键因素,讨论新增病例数量和留院治疗人数进入收敛状态的基本条件,并给出预报有关地区达到WHO解除疫情警报的时间的方法。论文以香港和北京的数据为例,验证了所研究模型的合理性和有效性。同时,对北京解除WHO旅游警告的时间进行推测。Abstract: Based on the study of an indicator index system that depicts the epidemic situation of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), this paper proposes an approach to divide the epidemic process of SARS into four typical stages. According to these indicator indexes in different stages, the key influence elements over the epidemic from the outbreak stage to convergent stage are investigated; also the convergent conditions of the number of daily additional patients and the number of patients in hospital are discussed. Further more the predictive modeling on the termination of epidemic is presented. As the case study, the data analysis of SARS in Beijing and Hong Kong demonstrate the reasonability and validness of the approach. And the data when Beijing can release from the SARS travel recommendation of WHO is finally predicted.
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[1] 郇极.SARS疫情预测数学模型(概要和计算示例) . 北京航空航天大学机械工程与自动化学院,2003-04-17. [2] 郇极,刘强.SARS疫情建模与分析 .北京航空航天大学机械工程与自动化学院,2003-04-27. [3] 王正行. 北京SARS疫情60天的初步分析 .北京大学物理学院,2003-05. [4] 叶沿林,庞丹阳,刘循序. SARS疫情分析及对北京疫情走势的预测 .北京大学物理学院,2003-05-08.
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