中国统一货币政策区域效应差异的实证研究——基于预期差异货币效应模型的路径解释

An Empirical Analysis of the Causes of Regional Difference under the National Monetary Policy: Based on the Expected Differences of Monetary Effects Model

摘要: 从区域性预期差异角度分析统一货币政策造成差异地区影响的不同原因,用一种模型尝试论证统一货币政策下区域预期差异同样会造成政策的执行效果不同,创立了区域预期差异条件下的货币效应模型,以数理模型研究统一货币政策在预期不同地区对价格及生产带来的不同影响。采用统一货币政策对中国东、中、西部地区的差异性影响进行实证研究,利用VaR等实证方法论证发现,中国统一货币政策对差异地区造成了不同影响。同时,分析了预期对货币政策差异影响的传导路径,为相关领域研究开辟了一条新的思路。

Abstract: Based on the rational expectation theory, the essay analyses the problems that the national monetary policy brings different effects to various areas under the difference of regional expectation. The monetary effect model is created to illustrate that difference of regional expectation in the national monetary policy may result in a variety of implementation effects. This mathematical model can quantitatively deal with the different effects of the national monetary policy on the price and production in the different expectation areas. And it analyses the conduction path of the different effects of monetary policy. It opens up a new way to solving the problems relevant to it.