基于Logit模型的中国预亏上市公司财务困境预测

Forecast of Financial Distress for Chinese Prelosing Listed Companies Based on the Logistic Model

摘要: 使用Logit模型对中国45家预亏的上市公司财务困境进行预测分析。另外还选入了相同数目的业绩正常的公司进行比较。实证研究表明，Logit模型在预测亏损前的上市公司财务困境方面具有较高的准确率。

Abstract: Adopting the logistic model, this paper predicts the financial distress of 45 Chinese listed corporations that would suffer deficit according to their own announcements. For comparison, another 45 listed corporations with normal financial status are chosen. The empirical research shows that the logistic model is effect in predicting the financial distress of pre-losing listed corporations in Chinese stock markets.