Analysis on Growth of Agricultural Products Export from New Zealand to China under FTA

By using trade data retrieved from UN Comtrade database, this paper uses Constant Market Share Model to analyze factors influencing the growth of New Zealand's agricultural products export to China between 1997 and 2012. The results show that the demand increase of agricultural products in China is the most important factor that influences the changes in exports, and after the ratification of China-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement, growth effect is less responsive to the export growth while commodity effect and comprehensive competitiveness effect begin to play more important roles. According to different types of agricultural products, there are disparities in the factors affecting the agricultural export growth.