Effect of Agricultural Production Efficiency on Carbon Emissions: Spatial Spillovers and Threshold Characteristics

Based on the panel data of China's 30 provinces (cities, districts) from 2002 to 2016, this paper uses spatial econometric model and panel threshold regression model to analyze the influence of agricultural production efficiency on agricultural carbon emissions. The results show that: first, agricultural production efficiency has a significant negative impact on agricultural carbon emissions; second based on adjacent matrix, distance matrix and economic matrix, agricultural carbon emissions have significant negative spatial spillover effects on neighboring provinces; third, with adjacent matrix and economic matrix, agricultural production efficiency has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on neighboring provinces. With the increase of agricultural output value in different provinces, the impact of agricultural production on agricultural carbon emissions shows an inverted U-shaped characteristic that first rises and then falls. With the improvement of agricultural production efficiency in different provinces, agricultural production efficiency has a significant negative impact on agricultural carbon emissions, and its impact degree is declining. Therefore, improving agricultural production efficiency can effectively reduce carbon emissions, which is of great significance for achieving high-quality agricultural development.