Trade Conflict, National Innovation Space and Global Semiconductor Industry Upgrade

This paper analyzes the influences of trade conflict and the innovation space on the upgrade of the semiconductor industry. According to the theory of the national innovation space, using the 1995—2018 World Bank and Atlas databases, the methods of stepwise regression and grouping test are used to set up an analysis framework for the impact of the innovation space on the semiconductor industry in 199 economies around the world. The results show that trade conflict promotes the increase in semiconductor exports, and education, tax policies, national development levels, and Asian countries have a positive effect on semiconductor exports and industrial upgrade indicators; however, the influences of urbanization, carbon emission reduction, financial market, government efficiency and living environment are heterogeneous. A further analysis of the different results of Asian countries show that compared with other economies, the average change in economic complexity index of Asian countries in the environment of trade conflict is 0.051 69, and the interactive effects of trade conflict and innovation space factors are significantly positive. To jointly promote industrial upgrade of Asian semiconductors, the governments should promote sustainable economic development by increasing investment to innovative space elements.