An Econometric Analysis of Issued Scale of Treasury Bonds

In this paper, we first investigated the main variables that influence the issue d scale of Treasury bonds with Granger Causality Test, and then we conducted uni t root test of ADF and PP tests to time series that explain scales of Treasury b onds, and cointegration test of Johansen test to the relationship among scale of Treasury bonds and the explained variables, respectively. We established the lo ng-run equilibrium equation and short-run error-correction model (ECM) to for ecast the issued scale of Treasury bonds in China, the model reasonably explaine d the long-run equilibrium relationship between the issued scale of Treas ury bond and macroeconomic variables, as well the short term factors that lead t o the volatility of Treasury bond issued scale. The performance showed that our models could provide accurate forecast for issued scale of Treasury bonds.