Evaluation and Predictive Modeling on Epidemic Situation of SARS

Based on the study of an indicator index system that depicts the epidemic situation of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), this paper proposes an approach to divide the epidemic process of SARS into four typical stages. According to these indicator indexes in different stages, the key influence elements over the epidemic from the outbreak stage to convergent stage are investigated; also the convergent conditions of the number of daily additional patients and the number of patients in hospital are discussed. Further more the predictive modeling on the termination of epidemic is presented. As the case study, the data analysis of SARS in Beijing and Hong Kong demonstrate the reasonability and validness of the approach. And the data when Beijing can release from the SARS travel recommendation of WHO is finally predicted.